Trump's Job Approval With Independents Just Keeps Getting Worse

 

This chart is from the YouGov Poll. It shows the job approval of Donald Trump with Independents from January of 2025 through August of 2026.

Independents Will Decide The Election - And They Don't Like Trump Or The Economy

The chart above is from the Gallup Poll. It shows that most Americans now call themselves Independents (43%), rather than Democrats (30%) or Republicans (25%). Most Polls have shown the Democrats with an enthusiasm advantage over the Republicans, but even with that there are not enough Democrats. That means the election, like most elections will be decided by the Independents.

In the 2024 election, Independents pretty closely split down the middle - allowing Trump and the Republicans to eke out a win. But if the polls are correct, that's not going to happen in 2026.

Most pundits think this will be an election on either affordability (the economy) or a referendum on Donald Trump. I think it will be a bit of both. And that's good news for Democrats. As the charts below show (from the Economist/YouGov Poll), Independents are not happy with the job Trump is doing, and they are just as unhappy with the economy.

If these numbers are anywhere close to correct (and I think they are), then Democrats should do very well in November.

Independents Have Reached A Record 45% In The United States

 

The charts above are from the Gallup Poll - done in 2025 of a nationwide sample of 13,454 adults, with a 1 point margin of error.

Trump Is Doing Very Poorly With Independents (In Every State)

 

From Strength in Numbers.

Nearly Half Of Americans Say They Are Independents

 

From The Washington Post

Independents Far Outnumber Both Democrats And Republicans

 The chart is from the Gallup Poll -- done in 2024 of a nationwide sample of 14,162 adults, with a 1 point margin of error.

54% Of Democrats Now Identify As Liberals

 

The 2022 results for Americans’ political ideology are based on a random sample of 10,736 U.S. adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. The results reflect combined data from 11 separate Gallup telephone polls conducted in 2022 between January and December. For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point at the 95% confidence level. 

Results by party are based on 2,943 Democrats, 3,296 Republicans and 4,307 independents. For results based on these samples, the margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

The Difference In Issues Between The Parties

The charts above are from the Associated Press / NORC Poll -- done between December 2nd and 7th of a nationwide sample of 1,089 adults, with a 4.1 point margin of error.

It shows the difference in issues considered important by Democrats, Independents, and Republicans.

75% Of Self-Identified Independents Are Not Independents

 

The following is part of an article by Geoffrey Skelley at fivethirtyeight.com. I thought you might find it interesting.

If you’ve ever been in a conversation about politics, you’ve probably heard someone say, “I don’t like either party” or “Politics is just so ugly these days.” That person also may have claimed not to identify as a Democrat or a Republican but as an independent instead.

Today, that person is pretty representative of how Americans identify politically. The share of Americans who say they’re independent has climbed considerably, according to Gallup’s quarterly party affiliation data. In the late 1980s, roughly one-third of Americans identified as Democratic, Republican or independent. Now, 40 percent or more identify as independent, while the share who identify as Democrats or Republicans has fallen to around 30 percent or lower, as the chart above shows.

On the one hand, more Americans identifying as independent probably doesn’t seem like a bad thing. Independents are often portrayed as more open-minded and less dogmatic in their political views. And in a nation whose founders feared factional politics, the value of political independence is also an attractive one to many Americans.

The problem is that few independents are actually independent. Roughly 3 in 4 independents still lean toward one of the two major political parties, and studies show that these voters aren’t all that different from the voters in the party they lean toward. Independents who lean toward a party also tend to back that party at almost the same rate as openly partisan voters.

“Independents tend not to look all that different from partisans,” said Samara Klar, a political scientist at the University of Arizona and co-author of the book “Independent Politics.” “But they do tend to be more averse to identifying themselves as a partisan when there is a negative stigma associated with partisanship. So, it’s really the arguments, the hostility, the negativity that seems to be driving this behavior.”

And polling shows Americans of all political stripes really are tired of partisan bickering. In January, 93 percent of American voters agreed they were “frustrated by the uncivil and rude behavior of many politicians,” according to a poll conducted by Lake Research Partners and The Tarrance Group for Georgetown University’s Institute of Politics and Public Service. In the same poll, 82 percent also said that the nation’s political, racial and class divisions were getting worse.

In their research, Klar and her co-author, Yanna Krupnikov of Stony Brook University, found that exposing people who identified with a party to news coverage of partisan battles in Washington did make them more likely to identify as independent. But that didn’t mean they lost their previous partisan identity; they just became more inclined to hide it. “They’re not actually changing their views on politics,” said Klar. “[Independents] are simply recusing themselves from publicly identifying themselves as a partisan.”

In other words, many Americans are so dissatisfied with politics and turned off by how ugly and partisan it has become that they now refuse to openly identify with either party — even though most still consistently back one party. This is troubling because it suggests that Americans not only are less willing to share their political beliefs but also no longer engage in politics in ways that go beyond just voting — developments that have negative ramifications for the health of our democracy.

“[Independents are] not going to put up yard signs, they’re not going to volunteer, they’re not going to work the phone banks, they’re not going to tell their colleagues and their friends who to vote for, they’re not going to extol the virtues of their favorite candidate to their neighbors,” said Klar. 

Republicans Out-Of-Step With Americans On Global Warming

 

These charts reflect the results of a recent Gallup Poll -- done between March 1st and 15th of a national sample of 1,010 adults, with a 4 point margin of error.

It shows that while a significant majority of Americans think global warming is a serious threat, and is caused by human activity, Republicans don't believe that. As usual, they are out-of-step with most people.

Republicans Still Love Trump - Others Don't

 

The charts above reflect the results of the latest Quinnipiac University Poll -- done between February 11th and 14th of a national sample of 1,056 adults, with a 3 point margin of error.

Republicans Are Putting All Americans At Risk Of Getting Sick

 The chart above is from the Axios / Ipsos Poll. The October 23-26 survey was done of 1,092 adults and has a 3.3 point margin of error. The November 13-16 survey was done of 1,079 adults and has a 3.1 point margin of error.

The reemergence of the Coronavirus has made all political persuasions more careful, but Republicans still lag far behind Democrats and Independents in taking the pandemic seriously. About 48% of Republicans don't consider large gatherings outside their home to be risky, 55% don't consider dining in a restaurant ro be risky, and 49% don't consider traveling for the holidays to be risky.

These idiots, by accepting the lies from Trump, are making the country more dangerous for everyone.

Poll Shows Most Voters Support Mail-In Voting

The charts above reflect the results of the latest Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between May 23rd and 26th of a national sample of 1,157 registered voters, with a 3.4 point margin of error.

Trump and his congressional Republican cohorts are fighting against giving Americans the chance to use mail-in voting. But once again, this puts them at odds with the voting public.

About 65% of registered voters support mail-in voting (including 84% of Democrats, 53% of Independents, and 42% of Republicans).

Trump and congressional Republicans are afraid they will lose if large numbers of voters turn out in November. But they may lose votes now by putting voters in danger by blocking efforts to let everyone vote by mail.

There Are More Registered Democrats & Independents Than Republicans In The U.S.

There are 31 states and the District of Columbia where voters must register their party preference. Democrats have the most registered voters (39.66%), and they have for quite a while. Until recently, the Republicans had the second most registrants and Independents were third. That has changed.

For the first time, Independents (29.09%) now outnumber Republicans (28.87) slightly.

Democrats have dropped 2.53 points since 2004, and Republicans have dropped 2.92 points since then. Independents have increased by 5.94 points.

Note that there are not enough Democrats or Republican to carry an election. Both need to appeal to Independents to win. Democrats need to realize this -- and not nominate a candidate that scares those Independents (most of whom are moderates).

Biden, O'Rourke, Warren, & Sanders Are Leading In Texas

The charts in this post are from the results of the newest Texas Lyceum Poll. They questioned 1,200 adults in Texas between August 16th and 25th, and the survey has a margin of error of 2.83 points.

For the chart above, 358 Democrats and Independents saying they would vote in the Texas Democratic primary were questioned, and the margin of error is 5.18 points.

Right now, Texas primary voters favor four leading candidates -- Joe Biden (24%), Beto O'Rourke (18%), Elizabeth Warren (15%), and Bernie Sanders (13%). Far behind the leaders are Kamala Harris and Julian Castro with 4% each, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar with 3% each. Cory Booker, Andrew Yang, and Steve Bullock all have 2%. I didn't include the candidate with less than 2% support on the chart.

For the charts below, the full sample of 1,200 adults was used.

For each of the following, is it very important, somewhat important, not very important, or not at all important for the country that...

Now thinking about how things actually are in the U.S. today...Does each of the following describe the country very well, somewhat well, not very well, or not at all? 

Reuters / Ipsos Poll Of Democratic Candidates

This chart reflects the results of the latest Reuters / Ipsos Poll -- done between May 29th and June 5th of a national sample of 2,271 registered Democrats and Independents, with a 1.8 point margin of error. The margin of error for only the 1,537 Democrats was 2.9 points.

You may note that I did not list all 24 Democrats on this chart. To make the chart easier to read, I left off any candidates that did not get at least 1% among Democrats or Democrats/Independents.

It may change after the first debate in about three weeks, but right now it looks like there are only six or seven serious candidates.

The Candidates Democrats & Leaners Are Considering

This chart reflects the results of the latest Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between April 13th and 16th of a national sample of 1,500 adults, with a margin of error of 2.7 points. This chart shows only the view of 640 Democrats and Independents who said they would vote in a Democratic primary. Respondents were allowed to pick more than one candidate that they are considering voting for next year.

Most Independents Actually Lean Toward A Major Party

The charts above are from the Pew Research Center. The percentages are figured from all the surveys done in 2018.

As the top chart shows, the largest percentage of people identify themselves as Independents. They make up 38% of the population, while Democrats are 31% and Republicans are 26%. But most of those Independents actually lean toward either the Democratic or Republican Party.

When you consider that, only about 7% of the population are true Independents (who don't lean toward either party). That's down from 9% in 1994. When you count the leaners, Democrats climb to 48% and Republicans to 39%.

Neither of those parties should count on those votes though. While they lean toward the party, that doesn't mean they won't vote against it if they see it as being too extreme (not representing their general views). While those identifying as Democrat or Republican will assuredly vote that way, the leaners need to be convinced.

The second chart shows the percentage in each group by gender, race/ethnicity, age, and education.

Is Howard Schultz Really A Closeted Trump Supporter?

Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz has announced he is running for president -- as an Independent.

It's hard to think he has a real path to getting 270 electoral votes and winning the presidency. Note the chart above, which shows the opinion of likely voters to Schultz. Only 4% of likely voters (and an equal percentage of Democrats, Republicans and Independents) have a favorable opinion of Schultz.

And his net approval rating is worse than any other possible candidate of either party -- negative 36 among likely voters, negative 46 among Democrats, negative 27 among Independents, and negative 39 among Republicans.

Those are atrocious numbers, and show he would have a monumental task just to make his candidacy credible. Add to this the fact that he has no real political agenda. When asked about his agenda, he simply said it was to unite the country -- but he could not explain how he would accomplish that task.

While we don't know what Schultz is in favor of, we do know what he is opposes -- covering all Americans with health insurance, raising the minimum wage, and raising taxes on the super-rich (like himself). He has also called the Democratic Party extremist (even though they are much closer to the political center than the Republican Party). How is he going to make his candidacy credible with those beliefs?

With his low public opinion and his lack of a political agenda to helpAmericans, I feel it is fair to ask just what he hopes to accomplish with his Independent candidacy. Is he just trying to help Donald Trump get re-elected? That's a definite possibility. And it could happen.

Look at the chart below (from the same poll). Without a Schultz candidacy, all of the Democrats listed (Warren, Harris, Biden, Sanders, O'Rourke) would beat Donald Trump if the election was held now. But with a Schultz candidacy, only Biden would beat Trump. Schultz would drain more Democratic than Republican votes, and give Trump the edge over the other four Democrats.

Howard Schultz has the right to run for president (as does any other American citizen old enough). But why is he running? Is it to give Donald Trump a better chance to be re-elected? I think that is exactly what he is doing.

These charts reflect information in a new Change Research Poll -- done on January 31st and February 1st of a national sample of 1,338 likely voters, with a 2.7 point margin of error.

Trump's Approval Drops As He Is Blamed For Shutdown

The chart above is from the AP / NORC Poll -- done between January 16th and 20th of a national sample of 1,062 adults, with a 4.1 point margin of error.

It shows that the job approval of Donald Trump has dropped recently among all groups -- the general public, Democrats, Independents, and even Republicans. His approval currently stands at a very low 34% among all adults -- 4% among Democrats and 28% among Independents. Only Republicans give him a high approval rating (77%).

The recent drop is due to his being blamed for the government shutdown. About 60% of all adults blame Trump for the shutdown -- including 87% of Democrats, 54% of Independents, and 28% of Republicans.

Only 31% of all adults and 30% of Independents blame the Democrats.