Independents Will Decide The Election - And They Don't Like Trump Or The Economy

The chart above is from the Gallup Poll. It shows that most Americans now call themselves Independents (43%), rather than Democrats (30%) or Republicans (25%). Most Polls have shown the Democrats with an enthusiasm advantage over the Republicans, but even with that there are not enough Democrats. That means the election, like most elections will be decided by the Independents.

In the 2024 election, Independents pretty closely split down the middle - allowing Trump and the Republicans to eke out a win. But if the polls are correct, that's not going to happen in 2026.

Most pundits think this will be an election on either affordability (the economy) or a referendum on Donald Trump. I think it will be a bit of both. And that's good news for Democrats. As the charts below show (from the Economist/YouGov Poll), Independents are not happy with the job Trump is doing, and they are just as unhappy with the economy.

If these numbers are anywhere close to correct (and I think they are), then Democrats should do very well in November.