A Democratic Voter's Message To Party Leaders

First, let me say that I appreciate the job that DNC members and other Democratic leaders are doing. 

You were chosen to run the day-to-day activities of the party, recruit candidates for the party, raise campaign money for the party's candidates, and forward/defend the party's positions - and for the most part, I think you do a great job.

But sometimes you go a bit too far. 

The Republican Party is a top-down party. Trump (and party leaders) say froggie, and the base asks how high to jump. This even extends to what candidates the leaders prefer.

The Democratic Party is not that way. We are (and pretty much always have been) a bottom-up party. The party's base voters decide what issues are important, and what candidates they want to address those issues and represent the party on the November ballot.

It is NOT the job of the DNC (or other party leaders) to choose the party's candidates. That is the job of the party's primary voters. They know better than anyone the problems and issues in their state, and the best candidates to address those problems and issues.

It is a mistake for party leaders (sometimes called the "establishment") to favor one Democratic candidate over another - to use their party position to favor a candidate or to fund one candidate over another. It is not your job to decide who is the better candidate or who should not represent the party. That is the job of the primary voters.

And it is not your job to complain about the candidates chosen by primary voters. That just creates dissension within the party, and lessens to chance of victory on Election Day.

Accept the decision of the voters. Then vocally and financially support ALL of the party's candidates.

We have a golden opportunity to flip Congress this year - maybe both houses. Don't blow it!

Reuters/Ipsos Poll Shows Dems With Electoral Advantage (Viewed Better For Cost Of Living)

 

Not All Populist Movements Are The Same

Populist movements are not new to the United States. They are created when a significant portion of the population become convinced that the elites controlling the government are not carrying out the will of the people.

Some populist movements have been successful. It was a populist movement that put Andrew Jackson in the White House. But most aren't successful. Even those many times have their concerns adopted by one of the major political parties though (which is a kind of success).

But not all populist movements are the same. That is shown by the two populist movements here in the 21st century.

Donald Trump was elected by a right-wing populist movement. It was a cultural populist movement - made of of a combination of racists, misogynists, xenophobes, and fundamentalist christians. These people were afraid that the country was leaving them behind.

They longed for the past, where their ideas were accepted by the majority and they had power. As the people they looked down on gained equal rights they felt as though they were losing - and thy wanted the old country back.

They found a champion in Donald Trump, who agreed with their bigoted views. And they were able to eke out an electoral college victory. They were able to get him re-elected on a promise to create a better economy.

But the better economy didn't happen. Tax cuts for the rich, tariffs that raised prices, and an unnecessary war against Iran combined to create an economy in which the top 10% (especially the top 1%) did well at the expense of the bottom 90%. 

That helped to spawn a left-wing populism. This was not cultural but economic. About 60% of the country is living paycheck-to-paycheck, and many of them are finding it hard just to keep up with inflation. In addition, the next 30% were also seeing their salaries weren't going as far as they used to.

Progressives, who had been preaching about economic unfairness for decades, found themselves becoming more popular as more people reached their economic breaking point. Progressive politicians found themselves winning more elections as the economic populist voters searched for those who would fight for them. And they made affordability the main issue in the coming election.

This has scared the Republicans (and sadly, some corporate Democrats) who created the economic mess, and have no solution for it. They have resorted to calling the new progressive winners "socialists" and "communists". 

But most leaders of the new economic populism are neither "socialist" or "communist". They are fighters who are willing to fight for a fair economy for workers. And I think most voters see that. They see their own grocery and electric and medical bills, and they need some relief. That's why calling the new progressives names or trying to claim the economy is good is just not going to work.

The new economic populism is backed up by hard economic realities - not bigoted beliefs. It's going to result in an electoral blue wave in November - a wave that could grow into a blue tsunami if name-calling is all the opposition can do.

The 2026 Election Is A Referendum On Trump (Whether He Likes It Or Not)

Donald Trump says the voters may be angry about Republicans, but they are not angry at him. That's because even he is starting to see the election could well be a disaster for the Republican Party - and he doesn't want to be blamed for that.

He's wrong of course. The election is definitely going to be a referendum on him. Midterm elections always are. They are the voters report card on how the current president is doing. And the report is usually a negative one. The party of the president in office usually loses some of his congressional support - a little if he is doing pretty good, and a lot if he has angered the public.

And Trump has made the public very angry. Poll after poll shows that most people don't think he is doing a good job. His approval is down into the thirties - lower than any other modern president going into a midterm election. The voters especially don't like the rising inflation (caused by his ridiculous tariffs and an unnecessary war), and they are going to register their displeasure in November.

Some pundits say that because Trump is not on the ballot, each Republican will be able to run on his/her own record. That may have been true in past midterm elections, but not this one. The congressional Republicans, as a whole, have tied their own fortunes to Trump. By refusing to oppose him, even when the public disagrees with him, they have shown voters that they have (and will) back Trump no matter what he does. That makes it clear that a vote for any Republican this year is a vote of support for Donald Trump.

Trump may not like it, and individual Republicans are hoping its not true, but the 2026 election is a referendum on Donald Trump - and it is shaping up to be a disastrous verdict on Trump and the entire Republican Party. 

Democrats Have An 85% Chance of Winning The House And 55% Chance of Winning The Senate

 

These charts represent the 2026 election forecast from G. Elliott Morris at FiftyPlusOne. When he was making these forecasts in the past for fivethirtyeight.com, he was among the most accurate forecasters.

Fox News Poll Has Talarico Leading Paxton (And Gov Race Within A Point)

 

The charts above reflect the results of the Fox News Poll -- done between July 23rd and 27th of a sample of 1,006 registered voters in Texas. The poll's margin of error is 3 points.

New Emerson College Poll Has Democrats With A Whopping 11-Point Lead

The chart above is from the Emerson College Poll -- done on July 19th and 20th of a nationwide sample of 1,100 likely voters, with a 2.9 point margin of error.
 

Fox News Poll Shows Democrats With An Election Advantage

 

The charts above are from the Fox News Poll -- done between July 17th and 20th of a nationwide sample of 1,003 registered voters, with a 3 point margin of error.

Cost Of Food, Housing, And Healthcare Among Top Issues This Year

 

The top chart is from the CNBC All-America Economic Survey -- done between July 8th and 12th of a nationwide sample of 1,000 voters, with a 3.1 point margin of error.

The second chart was compiled using Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers.

Democrats Hold A Significant "Enthusiasm" Advantage For 2026 Elections

 

The charts above are from the Washington Post / Ipsos Poll -- done between July 8th and 13th of a nationwide sample of 1,739 registered voters, with a 2.4 point margin of error.

Most Americans Want Democrats To Control The House Of Rep. After 2026 Election

The chart above reflects the results of the Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between July 10th and 13th of a nationwide sample of 1,616 adults (including 1,450 registered voters). The margin of error is 3.3 points for adults and 3.1 points for registered voters.

New Strength In Numbers Poll Is Bad For Trump - Good For Democrats

 

The charts above are from the Strength in Numbers / Verasight Poll -- done between June 17th and 22nd of a nationwide sample of 2,087 adults, with a 2.2 point margin of error.

New Poll Of Voters Gives Democrats A 10-Point Generic Ballot Lead

The chart above is from the Emerson College Poll -- done on June 7th and 8th of a nationwide sample of 1,200 likely voters, with a 2.8 point margin of error.

New Poll Gives Democrats An 11 Point Generic Ballot Advantage

 

The chart above reflects the results of the New York Times / Siena College Poll -- done between May 11th and 15th of a nationwide sample of 1,507 registered voters, with a 2.8 point margin of error.

NPR/PBS Poll Has Democrats With A 10-Point Generic Ballot Lead

The chart above reflects the results of the NPR / PBS News / Marist Poll -- done between April 27th and 30th of a nationwide sample of 1,155 registered voters, with a 3.3 point margin of error.

 

Most Americans Think The 2026 Election Will Be Conducted Fairly And Accurately

 

The charts above are from the Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between April 24th and 27th of a nationwide sample of 1,836 adults, with a 3.2 point margin of error.

The Most Important Issues For Voters

The chart above reflects the results of the Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between April 10th and 13th of a nationwide sample of 1,573 registered voters, with a 3 point margin of error. 

How Trump Could Be Impeached And Removed - After The 2026 Elections

It would clearly be impossible to impeach and remove Donald Trump with the current Congress. But Robert Reich believes it could be done with the next Congress - the one put in place if the 2026 elections go as predicted. He writes: 

Until recently I thought impeaching Trump and convicting him in the Senate was a pipe dream. I was concerned that even talk of impeachment at this stage might distract attention from the affordability crisis brought on by Trump and could even fortify Republican charges of Democratic “extremism.”

No longer. 

The president of the United States is stark-raving mad. He’s a clear and present danger to America and the world. The American public is beginning to see it.

 

We’ve got to do whatever we legally can to remove him from office. The 25th Amendment would be useful if Trump’s Cabinet and key advisers had any integrity, but they don’t. They’re ambitious, unprincipled traitors. 

Which leaves impeachment.

 

You may be skeptical. After all, he’s already been impeached twice, to no avail. How can the third time be the charm?

 

Because it seems likely that Democrats will retake control of the House and the Senate in this fall’s midterm elections (unless Trump prevents free and fair elections). 

And because it’s also possible that there will be enough votes in the Senate starting next January to convict Trump of impeachable offenses and send him packing.

 

I understand how difficult this may seem. Both times Trump was impeached in the House, he was saved by the Constitution’s requirement that two-thirds of the Senate (67 senators, assuming all 100 are present) convict in order to remove a president.

 

The highest Senate vote count against Trump came in 2021, and it was 10 votes short of the constitutional requirement. Fifty-seven senators, including seven Republicans, voted to convict him of inciting an insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. It was the most bipartisan impeachment vote in U.S. Senate history, but it still fell well short of the 67 votes needed to convict Trump. 

So why do I think it’s possible now? Because public sentiment has swung further against Trump now than it was in 2021. And it’s likely to swing even further against him, because he’s going out of his mind at a rapid rate. 

The way to accomplish this is to defeat enough incumbent Republican senators who are up for reelection in 2026 to create a Democratic majority in that chamber, totaling some 54 votes, and pressure at least 13 Republicans up for reelection in 2028 to vote to convict him. 

That’s not impossible. In the upcoming midterms it’s likely that Maine Republican Senator Susan Collins will be replaced by a Democrat (either Janet Mills or Graham Platner). I also assume that former North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper will replace Republican Senator Thom Tillis, who’s retiring. 

And I’d like to believe that the good people of Ohio will see the light and reelect Sherrod Brown over Jon Husted, the dullard who was appointed to fill the remainder of JD Vance’s term. 

James Talarico could take the Texas Republican Senate seat now occupied by John Cornyn. In Alaska, I’d put odds on Mary Peltola defeating incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan. In Nebraska, assume that Dan Osborn prevails over incumbent Republican Senator Pete Ricketts. And so on. 

Republican senators last elected in 2022 who will be on the ballot in November 2028 include some who are vulnerable because they’re in swing states, such as North Carolina’s Ted Budd and Wisconsin’s Ron Johnson; or are in states that could be competitive, such as Indiana’s Todd Young; or are vulnerable to internal party shifts, such as Louisiana’s John Kennedy and South Carolina’s Tim Scott. 

Those vulnerabilities mean that their constituents could push them to vote to convict Trump in an impeachment, or else threaten to vote against them in 2028. 

So it’s possible to get the 67 Senate votes, my friends. And it’s absolutely necessary that we try. 

The vast No Kings demonstrations should be considered a prelude to targeting enough Republican Senate incumbents and open races to flip the Senate this fall, and pressuring Republicans up for reelection in 2028 to do their constitutional duty. 

Now is the time to show the size and intensity of America’s commitment to removing Trump from office, for the good of us all.

Democrats Maintain A Generic Ballot Lead For 2026 Election

 

The charts above reflect the results of the Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between March 27th and 30th of a nationwide sample of 1,679 adults. The margin of error was 3.2 points.

Voters Want Democrats To Control Congress After The Next Election

 

The charts above are from the NBC News Poll -- done between February 27th and March 3rd of a nationwide sample of 1,000 registered voters, with a 3.1 point margin of error.