Texas Democrats Have Their Best Chance In Three Decades

The chart above is from the ReconMR Texas Poll -- done between September 8th and 11th of a sample of 614 likely Texas voters, with a 4.3 point margin of error. 

Texas Democrats have not won a statewide race in over 30 years. There have been some years when hopes were high, but they have never been able to get over the hump.

This year looks very different. Several polls have shown Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton in the race for the United States Senate - and most knowledgeable pundits now rate the race either as a toss-up or slightly favoring Talarico.

But the real surprise is happening in the race for governor. Until recently, most people were ignoring this race - assuming that Governor Abbott would easily win, as he had several times in the past. But polls are now showing that race has tightened. This poll has Democrat Gina Hinojosa with a slight lead, and several others have shown her wishing the margin of error.

Most pundits still give Republican Greg Abbott the better chance to win, and I think they are probably right. But this is not a normal election year. Democrats are fired up, Republicans are disappointed in Trump and the economy, and Independents seem to be breaking mostly for Democratic candidates.

I think Talaraco is going to win the senate race. And if there is a massive turnout, Hinojosa (and possibly some other statewide Democrats) could pull off a surprise and win.

As a life-long Texas Democrat, I'm excited.