More Polls Give Perry The Edge

I wish I could say I thought the statewide slate of Democrats was going to pull off a smashing victory next Tuesday night -- even the candidate for governor, Bill White (who I have very little respect for due to his "blue dog" conservatism).   But White's coattails are so short that it looks like it's going to be every candidate for himself or herself.  

Once again the Democrats ran a conservative for governor against a conservative governor.   They seem to think that the way to win in Texas is to deny the progressive roots of the party and not offer the voters a real choice (after all, if voters want a conservative they know the Republicans are the conservative party).   This strategy didn't work with Chris Bell in 2006 and didn't work with Tony Sanchez in 2002, and it looks like it's failing again in 2010.

White's campaign has just failed to gain any traction since the summer months.   He has yet to get any closer than six points in any poll (including his own in-house poll).   A few days ago two polls came out to show that Perry may actually be picking up steam.   White trailed him by 8 points in a Rasmussen poll and by 10 points in the University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll.

Now there are two new polls and White is not doing well in those either.   A Bloom & Weprin poll conducted for Texas' five largest newspapers (with a 3.8% margin of error) showed the following numbers for the governor's race:

Rick Perry (R)...............49%
Bill White (D)...............37%
Deb Shafto (G)...............3%
Kathie Glass (L)...............2%

A Public Policy Polling survey was also released.   This poll was taken between October 26th and 28th and has a margin of error of 4.1%.   Here is what it showed:

Rick Perry (R)...............53%
Bill White (D)...............44%
Undecided/other...............3%

The worst part of this is that the Democrats have some excellent down-ballot candidates.   But since most of the money goes to the gubernatorial candidate for the party, these other candidates need for the candidate for governor to do well to give them a boost.   It looks like they can forget any help from Bill White.

I'm still hoping candidates like Hank Gilbert and Linda Chavez-Thompson can win in spite of this disadvantage, but it's going to be very hard.

"Blue Dog Bill" Still Trailing In The Polls

Bill White, the Democratic Party's conservative candidate for governor, has been trying to inch closer to incumbent Rick Perry since the party conventions last summer, but it just doesn't seem to be happening.   He has maintained a 6 to 7 point deficit in nearly every poll that's been taken (including his own in-house polls).

A couple of days ago, Rasmussen released their latest poll on the Texas governor's race and things are still not getting any better for White.   They surveyed 500 Texas voters on October 21st and their poll has a margin of error of 4.5%   Here's how Rasmussen sees the race:

Rick Perry (R)...............51%
Bill White (D)...............43%
Other candidate...............2%
Not sure...............5%

That shows White with a deficit of 8 points now.   I normally would caution readers that Rasmussen sometimes has a couple of points bias toward Republicans, but another recently released poll has the margin even larger.   Rasmussen may actually be the more conservative estimate this time.

A new University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll has also been released.   They surveyed 800 Texas voters between October 11th and 18th and had a margin of error of 3.47%.   This is how the UT/TT poll sees the race right now:

Rick Perry (R)...............50%
Bill White (D)...............40%
Kathie Glass (L)...............8%
Deb Shafto (G)...............2%

This poll shows White with a 10 point deficit.   If they are right, then he is losing ground instead of gaining.   The White campaign just doesn't seem to be able to get any traction.

Globe News Makes Shocking Endorsement

The Amarillo Globe News is one of the most right-wing newspapers in Texas (and probably the nation as well).   They have a long history of supporting right-wing candidates for office, and this year is no different.   They had already endorsed many right-wing Republican candidates in this election including, David Dewhurst for Lt. Governor, Greg Abbott for Attorney General, Todd Staples for Agriculture Commissioner, Jerry Patterson for Land Commissioner, Susan Combs for State Comptroller, Mac Thornberry for District 13 U.S. Representative, and Walter Price for District 87 State Representative.  

They've also endorsed all three Republicans running for the Texas Supreme Court and the three Republicans running for the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals.   That's why the editorial endorsement made by the newspaper yesterday came as somewhat a shock.   They actually endorsed a Democrat -- albeit a corporate conservative Blue Dog Democrat.   The Amarillo Globe News has endorsed Bill White for governor.

Here is some of what the newspaper had to say about their endorsement:

"Change often doesn't come easily in a political system that usually rewards incumbency, seniority and a stubborn adherence to conventional wisdom.


Texas, however, is ripe for change at the top of its government ladder.


Bill White, thus, has earned the chance to govern a state in flux.


White, the Democratic nominee for governor, has more than earned his spurs as a public official.


Bill White was a successful three-term mayor of Houston, the nation's fourth-largest city; he served the Clinton administration as a deputy energy secretary, acquiring a good body of knowledge of a project near to the conscience of the Panhandle, Pantex; he built a successful energy company and was a skilled lawyer in private practice.


White's background, experience, political instincts and temperament all have prepared him well for the governorship.


It's instructive that White has collected support in the Panhandle from key Republican movers and shakers. Imagine that. This solidly Republican region of a solidly Republican state has several key leaders expressing their support for the Democratic nominee for governor.


But the former Houston mayor is no squishy liberal who is anathema to Panhandle conservatives. He is a pragmatic, pro-business bridge-builder with a demonstrated ability to work with Republicans."


I have been saying for a while now that Bill White is not really very different from the slate of corporate-owned conservatives the Republican Party is running.   I think this proves my point.   If White had any progressive credentials at all, he would never have received this endorsement.

Bill White's Bravado

You have to hand it to Bill White, the Democratic candidate for governor in Texas.   He's either lost his mind completely, or he's an absolute master of bravado (bluster, boasting, bluff, braggadocio).   White met with the editorial board of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram last Thursday and told them,   "We like where we are.   We've gained momentum.   We have support across party lines."

That makes it sound like his campaign is cutting into the 6 or 7 point lead that His opponent Rick Perry has maintained for several months now.   The problem is that it's just not true.   White's own most recent internal poll puts him at 6 points behind Perry.   White told he Star-Telegram that he thinks that poll surveyed too many Republicans.

First of all, if he's really getting support across party lines then it shouldn't matter if too many Republicans were surveyed.   Second, almost all candidate internal polls err on the side of the candidate that's paying for the poll -- not the other way.   In addition, all of the outside polls show White trailing his opponent by 6 to 10 points.

With only two weeks to go until election day I can't believe Bill White really likes the position he is currently in, especially considering that he hasn't been able to close the gap for several months now.   It's not like the polls have been going up and down like a yo-yo in this race -- they haven't.   There has been almost no movement in the polls since it was known who the two major candidates were.

But I guess a candidate has to talk like that.   It would be like putting up a white flag (no pun intended) to admit your campaign is stuck in neutral with only two weeks to go.

White Opposes National School Standards

The first debate among the Texas candidates for governor is now over, and as expected, Republican Rick Perry was a no-show.   Perry is still giving excuses for not debating, but it's pretty obvious that he doesn't want to do anything that might affect his 6 or 7 point lead in the polls.   He's going to try and coast into election day with making any political waves.   But while Perry stayed away, three candidates did show up -- Bill White (Democrat), Kathie Glass (Libertarian) and Deb Shafto (Green).

For most of the media the big story was Perry non-appearance coupled with charges traded by White and Perry from a distance.   But something else came up during the debate that came as a rather unpleasant surprise to me -- something that the media either ignored or included in one line at the end of their article.   Here's how the Fort Worth Star-Telegram put it,   "White and Glass both questioned the need for national public school standards. . ."

I've known for quite a while that Rick Perry opposes bringing Texas schools up to national standards.   He's a right-winger and a creationist.   He likes the idea of the State School Board dumbing down science and history courses by injecting religion and right-wing propaganda.   He has even rejected hundreds of millions of federal dollars for Texas schools to avoid bringing Texas schools up to national standards.

And it's no surprise that Kathie Glass opposes national education standards.   Libertarians are not great fans of anything the federal government does (or most other governmental entities for that matter).   But I was shocked to hear Democrat Bill White say he sees no need for national public school standards.   I knew he was a "blue dog" conservative but I had assumed he would be in favor of establishing standards for the education of all children in the United States, especially since he has made education one of his main campaign issues.

I would have thought that the need for all states to come up to a set of national standards would make sense to someone who claims to have education as a priority item in his agenda.   United States students are already falling behind other students in several developed nations. A set of minimum national standards is the first step toward rectifying this situation.  

It is obvious that without national standards there will be some states that do not meet those standards -- especially those states (and communities) that are ruled by right-wing religious fundamentalists, many of whom put forwarding their religious views and political propaganda above truly educating children.

I honestly don't know why supposedly intelligent people could be against national educational standards.   It is not a ceiling on educational knowledge.   It is just the bare minimum that is expected of all schools and students.   Good school systems should not even have to be worried about national standards because they should be striving to exceed them.

Some right-wingers see the establishment of minimum national standards as the federal government taking over their schools.   That's a ridiculous argument though.   Establishing minimum standards has nothing to do with the running of local or state schools.   It is just an effort to make sure our students learn enough to be able to compete in this ever more complex modern world.

I can only assume that White is trying to reach out for the votes of right-wingers with this silly stance against standards, and that is just dumb (because he couldn't get those votes if he paid for them).   And Democrats and Independents (whose votes he could get) have no problem with establishing national educational standards.   They want students in every state to be able to get the best education possible.

Making matters even worse is the fact that Bill White has seen what the current State School Board is doing to dumb down education in Texas.   He has to know that Texas is one of the states that could well fall behind without minimum national education standards.   His opposition to the idea just makes no sense.

Perry Still Leads In Texas Governor's Race

It's starting to look like all Bill White's efforts to make the governor's race close is coming to naught.   He still is showing no real traction in the race.   White (pictured) still trails the current governor by several percentage points in the latest poll (commissioned by a group of Texas newspapers).   The poll was conducted September 15th through 22nd by the New York-based firm of Blum & Weprin Associates.   Here are the latest numbers:

Rick Perry (Republican)...............45.8%
Bill White (Democrat)...............39.1%
Kathie Glass (Libertarian)...............3.5%
Deb Shafto (Green)...............0.6%
Undecided...............7.7%
Refused...............3.3%

That's more than a 6% lead for Perry -- about the lead he has been maintaining for the last few months.   Some had thought that the fact that Perry has been in office for 10 years would work against him -- especially in this year of anti-incumbancy sentiment.   But that doesn't seem to be the case.   When asked whether that would make a voter more or less likely to vote for Perry, the following response was received:

more likely...............15%
less likely...............33%
no impact...............51%

Another thing that is working in Perry's favor is that 49% of the respondents think Texas is moving in the right direction, while only 36% say the state is on the wrong track.   About 48% also approve of the job that Perry has done, while 38% disapprove and 14% didn't have an opinion.

Election day is only five weeks away (November 2nd) and early voting starts a couple of weeks earlier than that.   Time is starting to run out for White.   It looks like the only real chance for him to win is for Republican voters to think they have the election in the bag and fail to go to the polls to vote, and there's not much chance of that.   The Republican voters are angry and energized (and 57.5% of Texas voters don't approve of President Obama's job performance).   That plays in Perry's favor.

White Projected To Lose Governor's Race

One of the most respected election prognosticators in the business is Nate Silver of the political blog FiveThirtyEight.com, who has recently been hired by the New York Times as a political columnist. Silver is not a pollster, but probably knows as much about polls and polling as any pollster or politician.

As a mathematician, he examines the polls and their strengths and weaknesses (such as who was polled, what was asked and how, size of the poll, length of poll, etc.), and using mathematical models combines the averages of all polls taken, poll biases, demographic data, political climate and historical results to make a projection of what will happen on election day in individual races. He was uncannily accurate in the 2008 election.

If he can be believed, and I think he can be, then Bill White (the Blue Dog Democrat) has very little chance of unseating Republican Rick Perry. Silver has been projecting this race since February. His initial projection in February was that White had a 21.5% chance of winning. His projection of White's chance of winning since then has never been over 17% and currently resides at 16.5%. That's a very slim chance of winning, especially considering it has remained very constant for the last eight months.

Silver also projects what he believes the vote percentage will be for each candidate on election day. These projections have also been remarkably constant -- meaning there has been very little (if any) movement in this race since February. Here are the projections since February:

FEBRUARY

Perry...............51.8%

White...............45.4%

MARCH

Perry...............52.2%

White...............44.8%

APRIL

Perry...............53.3%

White...............43.7%

MAY

Perry...............52.7

White...............44.4%

JUNE...............53.7%

White...............42.9%

JULY

Perry...............52.2%

White...............44.4%

AUGUST

Perry...............52.8%

White...............44.0%

SEPTEMBER

Perry...............51.9%

White...............45.1%

The polls (weighted for bias and other factors) that were used in making these projections were:

Rasmussen (1/17, 2/1, 2/22, 3/3, 4/14, 5/13, 6/16, 7/13, 8/22)

Public Policy Polling (2/4-7, 6/19-21)

YouGov (2/1-7, 5/14-20)

Texas Newspapers (2/2-10)

It is easy to see from these numbers why Bill White desperately wants to debate -- and just as easy to see why Rick Perry has no interest in granting him that debate. Unless White pulls off some remarkable feat or Perry commits some incredible blunder, Perry's chances of winning in November are exceptionally good (about 83.5%). With these numbers Rick Perry would be a complete fool to submit to a debate.

There is still about two months until the election and anything can happen in that long a time. However, I have to believe that unless Bill White can significantly change these numbers by the first part of October, this race is over. And that won't be easy considering the remarkable constancy the race has shown over the last eight months.

White Not Gaining Ground In Texas

A new Rasmussen Reports poll has been issued for the governor's race in Texas, and it doesn't really have any good news in it for the Democratic candidate. It shows him with an 8% deficit, but even worse it shows there has been no real movement among voters in the last month. Here are the numbers for the last two months:

AUGUST

Rick Perry (R)..........49%

Bill White (D)..........41%

Another candidate..........3%

Undecided..........7%

JULY

Rick Perry (R)..........50%

Bill White (D)..........41%

Another candidate..........2%

Undecided..........7%

Democrats will be quick to point out that the poll has a margin of error of 4.5% and Rasmussen has been known to have a slight Republican bias. Both of these are true. But in the solidly conservative state of Texas, Rasmussen has been very accurate in the recent past. Here are some of their predictions compared to actual election day percentages:

2008 - TEXAS ELECTION

Rasmussen predicted for president

John McCain (R)..........54%

Barack Obama (D)..........44%

Actual Voting %

John McCain (R)..........55%

Barack Obama (D)..........44%

Rasmussen predicted for senate

John Cornyn (R)..........55%

Rick Noriega (D)..........40%

Actual Voting %

John Cornyn (R)..........55%

Rick Noriega (D)..........43%

2006 TEXAS ELECTION

Rasmussen predicted for senate

Kay Hutchison (R)..........60%

Barbara Radnofsky (D)..........34%

Actual Voting %

Kay Hutchison (R)..........62%

Barbara Radnofsky (D)..........36%

Rasmussen predicted for governor

Rick Perry (R)..........36%

Chris Bell (D)..........25%

Actual Voting %

Rick Perry (R)..........39%

Chris Bell (D)..........30%

In addition, there are a couple of other poll numbers that break in Rick Perry's favor. Around 55% of voters say they are happy with the job the Republican governor is doing, and when a majority of voters approve of the job the incumbent is doing he is usually re-elected. Perry is also doing much better among independents than White. Here are those numbers:

INDEPENDENTS

Rick Perry (R)..........59%

Bill White (D)..........33%

It looks like Blue Dog Bill White has a lot of work to do in the next couple of months if he wants to win the governorship of Texas. Right now he's looking like a loser.

Those Who Live In Glass Houses . . .

It's not even Labor Day but the charges are coming fast and furious in the race for governor of Texas. There hasn't been a debate yet, and probably won't be if Perry can avoid it, but just from the abrasive tone of the campaign already a person could be forgiven for thinking the election must be next week.

The latest charge involves politicians rewarding their donors with political appointments. The Democratic candidate, Blue Dog Bill White, has accused the Republican incumbent, Secessionist Rick Perry, of picking people who have made large political donations to him for state posts and boards. And it's true, he has done that. In his 10 year stint as governor Rick Perry has accepted at least $10 million from those he's appointed to state offices.

The only problem with Blue Dog Bill making this charge is that it smacks of the pot calling the kettle names. According to a post in the Texas Tribune, Blue Dog Bill did the same thing during his tenure as the mayor of Houston. It turns out that he accepted over $2 million from people he had appointed to city posts and boards.

It is a continuing problem for politicians to reward their donors with appointed posts. Whether it's true or not, it gives the impression of people buying their way into political power. Some of these posts come with a salary and some do not, but they all come with a certain amount of political power and prestige -- whether for the state or a large city.

Personally I'd like to see this practice outlawed, but that ain't going to happen. There are nearly enough honest politicians to make that a reality. So for now, we'll just have to accept that both viable candidates for governor are tarred with this same brush (unless you consider the candidates of the Libertarian Party and Green Party to be viable candidates).

It's just politics as usual here in Texas. They may all live in glass houses, but they're throwing stones as fast as they can.

Bill White Addresses The Convention

The high point of the state Democratic convention for many of the convention delegates came on Friday night. The party's candidate for governor made his appearance and spoke to the convention. And surprisingly, he gave a pretty rousing speech. Normally White's speaking style could put a charging bull elephant to sleep (and that might be his best chance of winning -- to lull the Republicans to sleep on election day).

But Friday nights speech actually had a little oomph to it. It was short on specifics and long on attacks on Perry. And of course, he kept all his promises to vague generalities. But then, this is what a convention speech is supposed to do. He does not have to sell most of the convention delegates on his candidacy -- they are already on board. This speech was not to convince, but to energize -- to get these party regulars energized enough to go out and do the hard work needed to make his (and other Democrats') candidacy viable in the coming election.

I guess he was successful in the effort to energize his supporters, because I heard a lot of the convention delegates talking the next morning about what a great speech it was. Now all he has to do is convince the voters of Texas and that's going to be a lot harder. A recent poll showed White and Perry tied at 43%. I'm not sure this isn't just an anomaly that will disappear with the next poll, but hopes are running high in the party right now.

Democrats want to believe they can grab some of the statewide offices back this year. After Friday night's speech, many are feeling a little better -- a little more hopeful about their chances.

White And Perry Incomes

Rick Perry has been demanding for months that his opponent for the governor's seat, Bill White, release his tax returns for the last few years. He has finally done that, and I begin to see why he delayed doing it for so long. To put it bluntly, Bill White is by far the richer of the two. Normally in an election the Republican is the richer of the two candidates, but that is certainly not the case in the governor's race this year. Here are the figures for the years of 2005 through 2008 (the last year figures are available for both men):

2005 INCOMES

Rick Perry..........$196,588

Bill White..........$4,727,896

2006 INCOMES

Rick Perry..........$223,974

Bill White..........$1,919,699

2007 INCOMES

Rick Perry..........$1,138,995

Bill White..........$2,355,446

2008 INCOMES

Rick Perry..........<$280,928> Because of huge loss in his blind trust

Bill White..........$1,405,066

I had assumed these two men were fairly financially equal, but it looks like I was wrong. Even more discouraging, a large part of Bill White's income comes from the energy industry. So it doesn't look like either candidate can be counted on to bring the energy industry into compliance with federal laws and/or give consumers a break. Perry because he's a Republican and that would be a violation of party values, and White because it would hurt his own financial well-being.

There you have it fellow Texans. One of these candidates has been bought by the energy industry and the other is a part of it. The upshot of this is that both are corporate conservatives, and neither will govern Texas for the best interests of ordinary Texans.

It might make some people feel good if White (pictured) is elected because they can say a Democrat is in the governor's mansion. But is this election simply for bragging rights? Evidently so, because both men would govern for the good of the corporations.

This is why I'll be voting for the Green Party this November. They may not have much of a chance, but at least I won't be ashamed of my vote.

Poll Shows Perry With Substantial Lead

A little over a week ago, the Rasmussen Poll showed incumbent Rick Perry with a double-digit lead over his Democratic opponent, Bill White (ex-mayor of Houston). Their poll showed Perry with 51% and White with 38% (with a 4.5 point margin of error). The Rasmussen Poll usually has a Republican bias, so I figured the lead was actually only 9 or 10 points (still a large lead though).

Now a new home state poll has been released. The University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll was taken between May 14th and 20th. They surveyed 800 registered voters, and the poll has a margin of error of 3.46 points. This poll also showed Perry with a substantial lead (9 points). It also shows that Bill White has no "coattails" to help other statewide Democratic candidates, since all of them are substantially behind their Republican opponents.

This is not totally unexpected since the Democratic candidate offers no real change from the current governor. Both are corporate-owned conservatives. It looks like the voters have decided that if they are going to wind up with a corporate-owned conservative, they might as well go with the one they know rather than the one they don't know. Personally, I don't think the Democrats will be able to wrest back control of the state until they find a smart, exciting and progressive candidate who offers a real change from the Republican policies (and that's certainly not Bill White).

Of course, there are still five months until election day and anything could still happen. But this same poll taken last February showed a very similar result. That means White (who really had no substantial opponent in his primary) has not made up any ground on Perry in the last three months. He's going to have to do better than that.

Maybe the campaign is exciting in other areas of Texas, but here in the Panhandle you wouldn't even know an election is coming. At least part of the reason for that is the lack of any interest in this area by the candidates. Not a single statewide Democratic candidate has come anywhere near here since the primaries. This is a rather Republican area of Texas, but Democrats need to remember the old adage that you can't expect someone to vote for you until you ask them for their vote.

There are those who might say this poll shows a Republican resurgence since 2008. I don't believe that is true. Texas has been a Republican state for a while, and the state went for John McCain in 2008. Daron Shaw, a UT government professor, agrees. He said, "This looks pretty much like a statewide election in Texas looks. It doesn't look like some huge Republican tide, but it doesn't look like a Democratic renaissance, either."

Here are the poll numbers for the major statewide races:

GOVERNOR

Rick Perry (R)...............44%

Bill White (D)...............35%

Other Candidate...............7%

Undecided...............15%

LT. GOVERNOR

David Dewhurst (R)...............44%

Linda Chavez-Thompson (D)...............30%

Other Candidate...............6%

Undecided...............20%

ATTORNEY GENERAL

Greg Abbott (R)...............47%

Barbara Radnofsky (D)...............28%

Other Candidate...............6%

Undecided...............20%

LAND COMMISSIONER

Jerry Patterson (R)...............39%

Hector Uribe (D)...............27%

Other Candidate...............7%

Undecided...............26%

AGRICULTURE COMMISSIONER

Todd Staples (R)...............39%

Hank Gilbert (D)...............28%

Other Candidate...............6%

Undecided...............26%

RAILROAD COMMISSIONER

David Porter (R)...............39%

Jeff Weems (D)...............27%

Other Candidate...............6%

Undecided...............29%

Meanwhile, it looks like there will be at least two other parties on the November ballot -- the Libertarian Party and the Green Party. Last Monday, the Green Party turned in petitions with about 90,000 signatures on them (they needed only 43,991 signatures to get on the ballot).

Tweedledee And Tweedledum

Those of you who read this blog regularly have probably realized that I have not posted on the Texas governor's race since the March primaries. It 's not that I don't think Texas needs a new governor and a change in direction for the good of all it's citizens -- I do. It's just that I'm having a hard time seeing any difference between the Democratic and Republican candidates.

The Republicans re-nominated current governor Rick Perry, and the Democrats nominated ex-Houston mayor Bill White. The Democrats nominated some very good progressive candidates for Lt. Governor (Linda Chavez-Thompson), Attorney General (Barbara Radnofsky), Land Commissioner (Hector Uribe) and Agriculture Commissioner (Hank Gilbert). They needed to offer Texans a real choice by nominating a progressive to lead the ticket and offer these candidates some coattails to rely on, but they didn't.

The candidate they nominated is nothing more than a DINO (Democrat in name only). The only difference I can see between White and Perry is the rhetoric they use. Rick Perry is prone to use an inflammatory teabagger style of rhetoric (to appeal to his right-wing base), while White is much more circumspect in his speaking style (some might even say boring).

But don't let that relatively unimportant difference in style lead you to think there is also a difference in substance, or in the way they would govern the state. In substance, they are basically tweedledee and tweedledum, and it would take a microscope to see any difference. Rick Perry is a corporate-owned conservative, while Bill White is a corporate-owned conservative. So don't let the party labels fool you -- both would govern to help corporate interests and not the interests of ordinary citizens, and neither will institute any progressive reforms.

White's absolute lack of even minor progressive credentials was brought to light in a story posted by the Ft. Worth Star-Telegram yesterday. They pointed out that the Republican mayor of Grand Prairie, Charles England, has announced his support of Bill White in the governor's race.

Now this die-hard Republican is not thinking of switching parties -- far from it. He simply thinks it would be good to have some new blood in the governor's mansion, so he's picking the new corporate-owned conservative over the old corporate-owned conservative. You can bet he would not support White if he thought White had any progressive tendencies.

Which of the two do I want to win? Frankly, I don't care. I won't be voting for either one of them. If I can't find a decent third-party candidate, then I won't vote in the governor's race. I know I'm probably making many of my Democratic friends angry by saying that, but that's truly how I feel. Blue dogs like Bill White have seriously hurt the Democrats in the last year. So much so that I couldn't even vote for a blue dog for dogcatcher, let alone governor.

Many Democrats will vote for White in the hope that he will be slightly better than Perry. I think they are wrong. For me, to vote for White is to abandon the progressive principles of the Democratic Party.

(NOTE -- I could not bring myself to publish a picture of either the blue dog or the teabagger, so I posted instead a picture of the last Texas governor I was proud of -- Ann Richards).

Another Poll Slams Blue Dog Bill

The Dallas Morning News and Fort Worth Star-Telegram released a poll yesterday that they and several other newspapers had commissioned to look at the governor's race. The poll surveyed 1,508 Texas voters between February 2nd and February 10th, and has a margin of error of 2.5.

Just like the three polls I discussed yesterday, this poll doesn't look too good for Blue Dog Bill White, who is the leading Democratic candidate for governor by a wide margin. While Blue Dog Bill looks strong in the Democratic primary, he doesn't look so good when paired against a Republican. Here's what the poll showed:

Perry 43%.....White 37%

Hutchison 42%.....White 34%

Perhaps the most remarkable fact uncovered by the poll is that after a couple of months of campaigning, 65% of Texans say they still don't really know who White is. That means Blue Dog Bill has a lot of work to do before the November elections (assuming he wins the primary).

Now some Democrats are saying it's a good thing that 65% of voters don't know White. That means he has a chance to win voters over before November. If White was a fiery campaigner, a great speaker and offered a real difference from what Republicans are offering, I might agree with that.

But the sad fact is that Blue Dog Bill is a corporate-owned conservative, a poor campaigner and a boring public speaker. He is far more likely to put voters to sleep than fire them up. I doubt that many independents (or Democrats) are going to be very impressed when they do finally get to know him (and he doesn't have a prayer of getting any Republican votes).

And the picture gets even worse when you consider the responses to a couple of other poll questions. Many Democrats are pinning their hopes on Texans wanting to dump current governor Rick Perry, but the poll doesn't back that view. When poll respondents were asked what they thought of the job Perry was doing as governor, 46% said they approved and 38% disapproved.

That doesn't look like a groundswell of opinion against Perry to me. Then respondents were asked whether Texas is moving in the right direction or is on the wrong track. About 53% of them said Texas is going in the right direction, while only 35% said the state is on the wrong track. Texans are just not chafing at the bit to dump their current state leadership.

A lot of my progressive friends are holding their noses, biting their lips and supporting Blue Dog Bill, because they think he's the only Democrat who could beat Perry or Hutchison. They're willing to sacrifice their beliefs just to get someone in office who calls himself a Democrat. I think they're wrong.

We've all seen the destruction wrought by blue dog Democrats in the last year, and it certainly doesn't inspire any confidence in voters that the best the Democrats have to offer is a blue dog corporate-owned candidate. I think he'll be lucky to hold the Democratic votes, and could do as badly as the empty suit they ran in the 2006 governor's race.

Democrats will not win the governorship until they offer Texas voters a real choice -- someone radically different from the corporate-owned conservative leadership we currently have in Austin. I urge all real progressive Democrats to show the party leadership your displeasure with their "anointed" candidate by voting for one of the so-called "minor" candidates on the ballot.

I am supporting and will be voting for Felix Alvarado -- an educator from Fort Worth. My good friend Perry over at the blog Brains and Eggs is supporting Alma Aguado (pictured) -- a physician from San Antonio and a good progressive. Voting for either one in the upcoming primary will send a message to party leadership that you're tired of business as usual (trying to trump a Republican conservative with a Democratic conservative) and want to see the party return to its progressive roots.

Maybe then we'll see some real progressives nominated and the Democrats will have a real chance of winning statewide races. Maybe then Democrats can return control of state government to the citizens of Texans instead of the corporations.

White Loses To Everybody In Every Poll

It looks like the Democratic Party establishment is going to get what it evidently wanted in the governor's race -- a weak blue dog Democratic candidate that stands no chance of winning in the general election in November. After party bigwigs ran all the viable progressives out of the race and made sure no others would enter it, the leading candidate is the "anointed one" himself -- Blue Dog Bill White, friend of the corporations.

He has no real opponents left in the Democratic primary -- just a rich Palestinian who's afraid to say what his religion is and a group of unknown candidates with no money to make themselves known. Most polls say Blue Dog Bill (pictured) will win the primary without a run-off. But that's not the hard part.

The hard (probably impossible) part will be to win in November, and nobody but hard-core Democratic Party regulars think he has a chance. The people of Texas certainly don't. There have been three polls done on the Texas governor's race, and every one of them has White losing to every Republican on the Republican primary ballot.

Frankly, I think most people figure if all they have is a choice between two corporate-owned conservatives, and that's what Blue Dog Bill really is, then they might as well vote for the one in the corporate-owned conservative party -- the Republican Party. At least the Republican candidate is being true to his/her party's principles. Blue Dog Bill opposes the principles of his party.

Here are the results of the three polls (all taken this month):

RASMUSSEN REPORTS

Perry 48%.....White 39%

Hutchison 49%.....White 36%

Medina 41%.....White 38%

UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS/TEXAS TRIBUNE

Perry 44%.....White 35%

Hutchison 43%.....White 34%

Medina 36%.....White 36%

RESEARCH 2000

Perry 46%.....White 42%

Hutchison 47%.....White 41%

Medina 44%.....White 43%

Debate - Didn't Watch it

If you came to this blog today to get my take on the debate last night between Blue Dog Bill White and Farouk Moneybags Shami, you will be disappointed. I didn't watch it. It wasn't that I forgot it was on, just that I had no interest in seeing it.

I personally don't think either man is qualified and believe both would be a total disaster in the governor's office. Of course, the Republicans would be a disaster also, but why trade one disaster for another. A corporate conservative is a corporate conservative regardless of what party label they have.

I refuse to vote for either one in the Democratic primary, and if one of them becomes the party nominee (probably Blue Dog Bill), then I'll be looking for a third party candidate or leave that space on the ballot blank in November. Maybe the Green Party will make it on the ballot this year.

"Blue Dog" Bill White Not Polling Well

Yesterday, I discussed the fact that Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Blue Dog Bill White, is not only less well-known that the leading two Republican candidates, but he also has around $4 million dollars less to spend than they do. It's going to take a lot of money just to introduce himself to the voters outside the Houston area, and he has to get that done because voters simply will not elect a candidate they don't know.

Now a new poll has come out that shows just how deep the trouble is for Blue Dog Bill. The newest Rasmussen Poll on the Texas governor's race shows him losing not only to the two leading Republican candidates, but also to their third place candidate -- who only has the support of 16% of Republicans. Here's how he stacks up against all three Republicans:

Hutchison...............49%

White...............36%

Perry...............48%

White...............39%

Medina...............41%

White...............38%

Now the Rasmussen Poll is a poll that usually slightly favors Republican candidates, but that fact doesn't seem to help Blue Dog Bill (pictured) at this point. Even if we take five points away from each Republican (and I doubt the Rasmussen bias is anywhere near that much), Hutchison and Perry still win by more than the margin of error (3%). And the Medina-White race is still within the margin of error.

That margin could probably be made up in the next few months if the leading Republicans were not viewed favorably by the general public, but that is not the case. The two leading Republicans are viewed favorably by a majority of Texans. Here are the favorability ratings for all four candidates:

Hutchison...............57%

Perry...............54%

White...............46%

Medina...............44%

At this point, it looks like the "anointed" Democratic candidate is headed for defeat in November, and this time they can't blame it on Kinky. Maybe someday they'll nominate a Democrat who offers the voters some real progressive change. That's the day they'll have a real chance to win.

Conservatives Rake In Campaign Dollars

The followers of conservative blue dog Democrat Bill White are celebrating a minor victory these days. It seems that this right-winger has outperformed all of the other right-wingers running for Texas governor by collecting the most in campaign funds in the first three weeks of 2010. I say it's a minor victory because he just barely beat out Rick Perry, and still lags far behind both Perry and Kay Bailey Hutchison in campaign dollars on hand. Here are the numbers:

FIRST 3 WEEKS OF 2010

White...............$755,067

Perry...............$734,366

Hutchison...............$269,941

Medina...............$145,857

CAMPAIGN FUNDS ON HAND

Perry...............$10.4 million

Hutchison...............$10 million

White...............$6.4 million

Medina...............$68,484

White is still $4 million short of his probable opponent in November -- Rick Perry, and outside of the South Texas and Gulf Coast areas, he's not nearly as well known. He's going to need every penny of that $6.4 million (most of which was raised when he was running for the U.S. Senate) just to introduce himself to most voters.

Many Democrats are acting like White has a good chance of being elected this coming November, but I doubt it. He'll probably win the primary because he has no real opposition there, but the November election is another story. This is still a Republican state and the Republicans seem to be happy with Perry's lack of leadership.

Also, conservatives and there baser cousins, the teabaggers, are energized this year. They will show up in large numbers to vote for their secessionist hero, Rick Perry. Progressives are not nearly so energized, because they have a blue dog that'll probably be heading their ticket. Many of them are supporting the conservative Bill White, thinking a conservative will appeal to the Independents. But many others will probably vote third party or stay at home.

After all, we've already had years of corporate conservative leadership in Austin. Why should we think electing a corporate conservative Democrat will be any better than re-electing the corporate conservative Republican. I expect many Independents will think the same.

Maybe someday the Democrats will remember their proud history in Texas and nominate a real progressive as an alternative to the corporate conservatives put up by the Republicans. If they do, they again have a real chance of winning. But that's not happening this year.

I expect the voters in November will choose the corporate conservative they know (Perry) over the corporate conservative they don't know well (White). In 2006, Democrats blamed Kinky Friedman for their loss (even though he got as many Republican votes as Democratic votes). In 2010, they'll have no one to blame but themselves.

Notes On Texas Governor's Race

Felix Alvarado (pictured), candidate for governor of Texas in the Democratic primary, was looking forward to debating the other candidates in Dallas. Alvarado doesn't have the millions of dollars in his campaign chest that a couple of his opponents have, and this would be a major opportunity for him to get his message out to the voters.

But now it doesn't look like he'll get that chance. It seems that the "anointed one", blue dog Bill White, has decided that debates aren't necessary for Democrats to make their choice. Evidently, he believes the newspapers and blogs that say he will win the nomination, and he doesn't want to do anything that might jeopardize his "anointed" status -- like debate an opponent.

I have to wonder what White is afraid of. Does he think he might come off to the voters as boring when compared to his opponents? Or is he afraid his conservative blue dog policies won't look so good when matched with an opponent's progressive views? Either way, it's just another reason not to vote for Bill White in the primary -- a candidate too gutless to face his opposition.

Meanwhile latecomer to the governor's race, Dallas private investigator Bill Dear, is whining about have a muslim opponent in the race. Dear said, "Now we have a Muslim wanting the highest office in Texas, Governor, wanting to spend 10 million dollars and receive $1 in salary, why? According to the internet they are asking Muslims to rally and support their candidate for Governor. It is time for a change, but not that kind of change."

That sounds like a great political point in these days of fearmongering. There's only one thing wrong with it -- there is not a muslim running for governor in either the Democratic or Republican primaries. I assume that Dear is talking about Houston businessman Farouk Shami, but Shami says he is a Quaker.

It looks especially bad when one considers that Dear is supposed to be a private investigator. How good an investigator can he be, when he can't even get Mr. Shami's religion right (which is no secret). Dear has been in the race less than a week, and he's already made himself look like a complete fool.

Felix Alvarado On The "Anointed One"

If you read the Texas newspapers and Democratic/progressive blogs, you would get the impression that there's really no reason to hold next March's Democratic primary to pick a candidate for governor. Most media and party leaders have already "anointed" ex-mayor of Houston Bill White (pictured) as the winner.

I think they're counting their chickens before the eggs have even hatched. White may be an extremely popular Democrat in Houston and parts of South Texas, but he is a virtual unknown in most other parts of the state (especially the north and western parts of the state). In addition, he's a "blue dog" Democrat, at a time when many progressives are angry with how the "blue dogs" have screwed up health care reform.

One of his opponents, educator and veteran Felix Alvarado, is even questioning the popularity of White among his home-town voters. Alvarado says:

"I find it difficult to swallow that anyone who wins a mayoral race with only 13.52% (123,413 total ballots/912,888 RV) of the population of registered voters voting … a popular or outstanding leader. I would imagine a strong leader would excite the population into supporting his or her candidacy. It is more the norm for mayors to get elected by a small percentage of the population, which is probably why they do not get elected statewide. But, one would assume that a popular mayor would excite and encourage voter participation, rather than effect decline in voter participation, more so during reelection. That seems to speak loudly about the strength of that support."