Iowa GOP Race Still A Fluid Mess

The situation in Iowa remains very fluid. At least 9% of all men and 16% of all women Republican caucus voters still haven't made up their minds who to support on January 3rd, and a large number of those who have indicated a preference say they could still change their minds.

Another new poll has been released. The American Research Group Poll questioned 600 Republican caucus-goers between December 19th and 22nd (470 Republicans and 130 Independents). The margin of error is 4 points. Here is how the race stacks up in that poll:

Ron Paul...............21%
Mitt Romney...............20%
Newt Gingrich...............19%
Rick Perry...............9%
Michele Bachmann...............8%
Jon Huntsman...............6%
Rick Santorum...............4%
Buddy Roemer...............1%
Undecided...............12%

It's looking more and more like there will not be a real winner in Iowa. Instead, there will be several candidates emerge from Iowa with delegates (even Perry and Bachmann could get some delegates if things go right for them on caucus night). But things get really interesting when the poll is broken down by different groups. Here are the poll leaders by group:

MEN
Paul...............29%
Gingrich...............21%
Romney...............18%

WOMEN
Romney...............23%
Gingrich...............17%
Paul...............12%
Perry...............11%

INDEPENDENTS
Paul...............33%
Romney...............17%
Gingrich...............17%

REPUBLICANS
Romney...............21%
Gingrich...............20%
Paul...............17%
Bachmann...............10%

TEABAGGERS
Gingrich...............29%
Paul...............17%
Romney...............16%
Bachmann...............11%
Perry...............11%

NON-TEABAGGERS
Paul...............22%
Romney...............22%
Gingrich...............15%

Since the different groups are supporting candidates in differing numbers, it's all going to come down to who shows up for the caucuses. Are there going to be an abnormally large portion of Independents (which would be good for Paul)? Are the teabaggers going to show up in larger numbers than establishment Republicans (which would favor Gingrich)? Are women going to be as large a group as men (which would help Romney)?

January 3rd is shaping up to be a very interesting night for us political junkies. As Terrell Owens once said -- get your popcorn ready.