Is Paul The Fly In Gingrich's Ointment ?

Poll after poll has shown that the newest favorite in the Republican race for the presidential nomination is Newt Gingrich. Being unable to win a significant portion of the party's teabagger base, Romney is slipping back while support for Gingrich continues to grow. And if the polls are right, including two new Iowa polls just released, then Gingrich is the current favorite to win the Iowa caucuses (less than a month away now). Can Gingrich be stopped this late? If anyone can do it, it might be Ron Paul. But first let's look at the two newest polls on Iowa:

PUBLIC POLICY POLLING
Newt Gingrich...............27%
Ron Paul...............18%
Mitt Romney...............16%
Michele Bachmann...............13%
Rick Perry...............9%
Rick Santorum...............6%
Jon Huntsman...............4%
Gary Johnson...............1%

WASHINGTON POST/ABC NEWS POLL
Newt Gingrich...............33%
Ron Paul...............18%
Mitt Romney...............18%
Rick Perry...............11%
Michele Bachmann...............8%
Rick Santorum...............7%
Jon Huntsman...............2%

Looking at these polls, Gingrich would seem to be a shoo-in for winning the Iowa caucuses. But there are a few other things that need to be considered. First, Ron Paul has moved up to at least a tie for second place, which means he has at least some momentum. If Gingrich does fall, Paul is close enough to the top to benefit from that. Second, the other candidates are starting to take their shots at Gingrich, and Ron Paul has already released a very hard-hitting anti-Gingrich TV ad (and plans to do some more). This could start having some effect this month.

The third thing is the rather remarkable ability of Ron Paul to turn out his voters. Paul supporters are true-believers, and they will be at the caucuses whether the supporters for other candidates show up or not. This has been shown in straw polls across the country -- the majority of which have been won by Ron Paul. If Gingrich falters, the Paul supporters will be there to take advantage of it, and they just might be able to snatch a victory away from Gingrich or Romney.

Gingrich is currently in the best position, but there's nearly a month to go. This is still a very interesting race, and far from over. Get your popcorn and beverages ready, because the Iowa caucuses are shaping up to be a lot of fun.