The Economist/YouGov Poll was conducted between August 20th and August 23rd (with a margin of error of 3.7 points). It shows that Rick Perry has assumed a clear lead:
Rick Perry...............23%
Mitt Romney...............15%
Ron Paul...............11%
Michele Bachmann...............9%
Herman Cain...............8%
Rudy Giuliani...............6%
Sarah Palin...............4%
Newt Gingrich...............4%
Rick Santorum...............2%
Jon Huntsman...............2%
Other...............6%
No preference...............11%
This has got to scare the hell out of establishment Republicans who were thinking they might have a shot at taking the White House back in this terrible jobless recession. Now it looks more likely than ever that the party, thanks to the teabagger base they have encouraged, will nominate a far right-wing candidate who will alienate and scare most of the electorate (and make no mistake about it, Rick Perry is every bit as teabagger crazy as Bachmann, Palin, Cain, Paul, and Santorum).
The real disaster that establishment Republicans are afraid of is that a crazy right-winger at the top of the ballot could have a negative effect all the way down the ballot -- giving them an electoral result as bad or worse than 2008. It's unlikely that even a moderate Republican, if such a thing exists, could win the White House in 2012, but they could attract enough independents to the ticket to save the Republicans in House and Senate races. But Perry is not that person.
Here is how the poll showed Republicans doing against the president right now:
Obama...............50%
Perry...............37%
Obama...............47%
Romney...............38%
Obama...............50%
Bachmann...............36%
Obama...............51%
Palin...............34%
I personally think the Perry boomlet is just that - a boomlet.
ReplyDeleteRemember just a few short months ago when Donald Trump was the candidate du jour? How long did that last?
I read something recently that I had totally forgotten: Last year, Perry refused to debate Bill White in the governor's race. Do you think he can get away with that kind of stonewalling in the GOP race and still stay on top?
There will be three Republican presidential debates next month (on the 7th, 12th and 22nd). I'm not saying that Perry won't end up being the nominee, but by November of this year (one year before the election), the race could look very different than it does now.
did you hear the latest supporter of perry? kinky fucking freidman...so glad I never voted for either one of them fuckers.
ReplyDeleteAnother reason I don't think Palin is going to run (I think this must be about reason #14 by now):
ReplyDeletePalin has said on more than one occasion that she could beat Obama in 2012. As delusional as that might be, it can't be objectively proven false as long as she doesn't throw her hat in the ring. If she does, and loses in the primaries, she'll just be another also ran. If she gets the nomination, and loses to Obama in the general election, she'll finally be proven wrong. But if she stays out of the race, and especially if Obama wins, she'll always be able to say, "See! I told you so. I would have beaten him."
I call this the "I could have beaten up that big guy in the bar if I'd wanted to" syndrome.
Of course, I could be completely wrong.
It seems like the these numbers are most damning for... Bachmann.
ReplyDeletePerry has basically turned her from the conservative fave to a has-been overnight.
Romney was going to end up getting bruised up by whomever the conservative fave turned out to be. But Bachmann...
Interesting.