Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Gallup's Newest Positive Intensity Scores

These are Gallup's new numbers on the race for the Republican presidential nomination. The left side of the graph shows the name recognition of the candidate. And the bottom of the chart shows the Positive Intensity Score (PIS = the number of people who approve of the candidate minus the number who disapprove -- asked only of those who know the candidate). It is Gallup's contention that the strongest candidates will be high in both areas -- which means the strongest candidates would be in the upper right-hand corner of the chart.

As you can see, no one has achieved "perfect candidate" status, but there are three candidates doing fairly well. Rick Perry does well both in name recognition (79%) and PIS (22). Mitt Romney has high recognition (84%), but a smaller PIS (14) -- which is still above the average PIS of 12. Herman Cain has the highest PIS (26), but is only known by 51% of Republican voters. To become a top-tier candidate, Cain must radically increase his recognition while maintaining his large PIS. That will be difficult since he is virtually ignored by the mainstream media.

The most interesting part of these new numbers are those of Michele Bachmann. She has a high recognition (83%) but a very low PIS (8). She has plummeted from a PIS of 24 in late June to her current score of 8. It looks like the more people get to know her, the less they like what they see. Gingrich and Paul score high in name recognition, but have a below average PIS. Santorum and Huntsman must improve in both areas.

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