Does "Black Friday" Really Mean Sales Will Be Up For The Season This Year ?

Well, apart from the violence and the craziness, it looks like retailers had a good "Black Friday" this year. Initial figures show that shoppers spent more this year than they did last year on the official first shopping day of the holiday season. This is also born out by a Gallup Poll on self-reported Black Friday Spending. Here are the results of that poll for the last four years:

2008...............$90 average
2009...............$83 average
2010...............$92 average
2011...............$98 average

In a normal year that would be very good news for retailers. That's because in the past (during better economic times) a good Black Friday was a pretty reliable predictor of good sales for the entire holiday season. And the pundits are predicting that's exactly what it means for this year too. But I have to believe retailers are viewing that prediction with their fingers crossed, because this is not a normal year.

The question is whether the sales on Black Friday were just the start of something good or an anomaly. Did the people rush out on that day to get the best bargains they could find because they have little to spend this year (thanks to high unemployment and the recession), or was it the start of sustained buying by the general public?

There are some other figures in that same Gallup Poll which show the huge Black Friday sales could be an anomaly and buying will not be sustained throughout the season. In 2009 about 37% of the population thought economic conditions were getting better, and in 2010 that figure rose to 39%. But this year people are significantly more pessimistic, and only 24% think economic conditions are getting better.

The pundits might be right. It might be a very good season for retailers. I hope so, because a high demand could encourage both retailers and the factories that produce those retail goods to do some hiring. But I'm not yet ready to believe it. I think that a month from now we'll look back on another disappointing season for sales. I do hope I'm wrong though. The country could use a little good news.