Gingrich Now Has A Path To The Nomination

There was a time when most of us believed Newt Gingrich's political career was over. After numerous ethical charges and moral shortcomings, he was driven from the House of Representatives (and his job as Speaker) by the members of his own party. And when your own political party turns it back on you it usually means you political career is over. In fact, most people (including myself) were surprised when Newt tossed his hat in the presidential race this year.

Few people gave Newt a chance of actually getting the nomination -- especially with all the skeletons he has in his closet. But while all the other candidates (Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain) all took their shot at beating Mitt Romney for the nomination, Newt just kept plugging along in single digits. Now only five weeks from the start of the primary season, the teabagger base of the Republican Party is still not willing to accept Mitt Romney but they are running out of alternatives.

There is only one candidate left standing if the teabaggers can't accept Romney -- Newt Gingrich (since the campaigns of Huntsman and Santorum are just a joke and Paul is too much a maverick for the teabaggers). And amazingly, it looks like the teabaggers (who like to call themselves "values" voters) are now willing to overlook Newt's ethical and moral skeletons and give him their support. It shows the depth of their antipathy for Romney.


For days now the polls have shown that Gingrich has caught up with Romney, and even passed him is some polls. This is now verified by a new poll (taken of 499 Republican voters on November 27th with a margin of error of 4 points). Poll Position numbers are as follows (and note that the difference between Gingrich and Romney exceeds the margin of error now):

Newt Gingrich...............32%
Mitt Romney...............23%
Herman Cain...............14%
Ron Paul...............6%
Rick Perry...............5%
Michele Bachmann...............4%
Jon Huntsman...............3%
Someone else...............4%
No opinion...............11%

That's a pretty significant lead. But does Newt Gingrich really have a path to the nomination? It now looks like he might. It's become pretty obvious recently that Romney is not going to win in Iowa. The best he can hope for in that state is second or even third place. That means he is going to have to do very well in New Hampshire to regain some momentum and demonstrate he is still a leading candidate.

Polls recently had Romney doing exceptionally well in New Hampshire. He had a significant lead over all the other candidates. But that might have changed this last weekend. The state's largest newspaper, The Manchester Union Leader, has now officially endorsed Newt Gingrich, and will be running daily articles to support his candidacy. Now a newspaper endorsement may not mean much in some states (here in Texas it would have about as much value as a cold cup of coffee), but this is not just some state -- it is New Hampshire.

And respected campaign analyst Nate Silver says the endorsement of The Union Leader could well be a game-changer. He says that traditionally that endorsement means an 11 point jump in the polls for the candidate endorsed. If even a few of those points come from voters that were supporting Romney, it could mean Gingrich has a chance to do well in New Hampshire. And if Gingrich wins New Hampshire, or just finishes a close second, that could take the wind out of Romney's sails.

The next state in line to vote would be South Carolina -- where Southerner Newt Gingrich would have a natural advantage over Romney. By the time the race got to a Romney state, he might have dropped so far behind that he starts losing supporters.

Does Gingrich have a real path to the nomination? Yes. The Union Leader endorsement has opened the gate to that path. Now the only question is can Newt trod that path without tripping?