GOP Is Striking Out With Hispanics

According to the 2010 census, the population breakdown of the United States by race or ethnicity is as follows:

Whites (non-Hispanic)...............63.7
Hispanics...............16.3%
African-Americans...............12.2%
Asians...............4.7%
Mixed race...............1.9%

This population breakdown makes it unlikely that a political party could expect to win the White House with a fairly significant portion of the non-white vote. To win with only white votes would require a party to get an abnormally high percentage of that white vote -- and that is unlikely to be possible for either party (although with their anti-immigrant and anti-minority policies, that seems to be what the Republicans are trying to do).

It is probably impossible for the Republicans to get more than 7-8% of the African-American vote (in fact, I think that number might be too high). A lot of whites may not be able to see the anti-minority policies and simmering racism inherent in the Republican Party, but it is clear to almost all African-Americans. It would be futile for the Republicans to go fishing for votes in this demographic group.

The only real possibility to get significant votes outside of the white demographic would be among Hispanics. The last time the Republicans elected a president was in 2004. That year George Bush got 40% of the Hispanic vote, and squeaked by in a close election. In 2008, John McCain got only 31% of the Hispanic vote and was soundly defeated. The question for the 2012 election is can the Republicans top the 31% Hispanic vote of John McCain, and get close to the 40% Hispanic vote of George Bush?


At first glance, that might seem possible. After all, a large segment of the Hispanic population (about 59%) are unhappy with the deportation policy being pursued by President Obama. In both of his first two years in office, President Obama deported more undocumented immigrants than George Bush did in any of his eight years in office. Could this be causing a backlash that would be beneficial to the Republicans?

The short answer is no. While the Hispanics may not be real happy with President Obama's policy, they know that the policies of the Republican Party are much more anti-minority and anti-immigrant than those of President Obama (or the Democrats). The Pew Hispanic Center decided to find out just where Hispanics stood politically. They did a survey of 1,220 Hispanic adults between November 9th and December 7th. The survey had a margin of error of 3.6 points. And frankly, the results of this survey should scare the hell out of Republicans.

The poll showed that President Obama would crush the leading Republican hopeful (Romney) among Hispanics, and would also crush Perry. They didn't ask about other Republican hopefuls, but it is unlikely they could do any better (since they are more virulently anti-immigrant than Romney and Perry). Here are the numbers:

Obama...............68%
Romney...............23%

Obama...............69%
Perry...............23%

Even just among the 59% who are unhappy with President Obama's deportation policy, Obama is still the clear winner:

Obama...............57%
Romney...............34%

Obama...............61%
Perry...............31%

Those are some pretty pathetic numbers -- at least 8 points worse than McCain did in 2008. Those kind of numbers just aren't going to cut it. Some Republicans think they can fix this "Hispanic problem" by putting Sen. Rubio of Florida on the ballot as the vice-presidential candidate, but the poll showed that most Hispanics don't even know who Rubio is (and the Cubans make up only a tiny fraction of the total Hispanic population in this country).

The poll also showed that the anti-Republican sentiment among Hispanics could also hurt them down-ballot. About 67% of Hispanics say they identify with the Democratic Party, while only 20% say they identify with the Republican Party.

The Republicans have made their own bed, and now they're going to have to lie in it. By accepting the racists who fled the Democratic Party after President Johnson passed the civil rights laws, and by pursuing policies for the last few years that are clearly anti-minority and anti-immigrant, they have assured that they are basically still a "white's only" party. That might make them happy, but it's not going to win any presidential elections. And it will just get worse for them in the future as the percentage of whites shrinks (nearly 92% of population growth in the last ten years was minorities, and over half of the growth was Hispanic).