Can Hispanics Save Romney In Florida ?

It's no secret that since his win in South Carolina, Newt Gingrich has experienced a surge of support -- both in Florida, the next state to vote, and nationwide. All of the polls done since the South Carolina primary show Gingrich is either now leading in Florida or has significantly closed the gap between himself and Romney. A good example of this is the Florida Chamber of Commerce poll that shows Romney and Gingrich dead even at 33% each (with Santorum at 10% and Paul at 6%).

The question of the hour is whether Romney can can on and win the very important Florida primary -- especially in light of the renewed vigor of the anti-Romney forces (teabaggers and evangelicals)? The answer is maybe. There are two things that probably work in Romney's favor. First is the large numbers of early voters in the state. Estimates are that as much as 30% of the Florida primary vote will be made up of early voters -- and most of those voted before the Romney fall in the polls began (when he was still viewed as the "inevitable" winner).

The other factor favoring Romney is the Hispanic vote. In most other states the Hispanic vote in a Republican primary would be negligible, but Florida is different -- mainly because of the large number of Cubans living there (many of whom vote Republican). It is estimated that 10% of the Republican primary voters will be Hispanic. And a UNIVISION/ABC NEWS POLL shows that while Gingrich may be surging among non-Hispanic whites, he is not making significant inroads among Hispanics in Florida.

Florida is a closed primary, which means that only those who are registered Republicans will be able to vote in the Republican primary. Among registered Hispanic Republicans, Mitt Romney maintains a large lead over Newt Gingrich -- a lead of about 26 points. Currently Romney has the support of 49% of Hispanic Republicans, while Gingrich has the support of only 23%. The rest are undecided. If the undecideds all decided to vote for Gingrich, then that would negate the Hispanic vote overall, but that is unlikely to happen. It is far more likely that Romney will wind up with the lion's share of Florida's Hispanic vote.

If Romney wins in Florida on January 31st, it will largely be due to him getting large margins in both the early voting and the Hispanic community. And he will definitely need both to offset the large margins Gingrich will probably get upstate among the teabaggers and evangelicals.

But while Romney can count on Hispanics to help him in the Republican primary, the general election is a different matter. The same poll shows that among all of the state's Hispanic voters, the clear winner is President Obama (although the Cuban community will keep Romney closer than in other states). Here is the breakdown of how the general election numbers look in Florida:

Obama...............52%
Gingrich...............38%

Obama...............50%
Romney...............40%

VOTE BY HISPANIC GROUPS

Cuban
Romney...............54%
Obama...............34%

Puerto Rican
Obama...............67%
Romney...............23%

Other Hispanics
Obama...............52%
Romney...............36%