Florida Primary Could Be A Toss-Up

There are those who thought the Republican race could be pretty much over by the time it got to Florida (only the fourth state to vote). These people thought Romney would be well on his way to winning the nomination by now. But they underestimated one thing -- the depth of the teabagger/evangelicals' dislike for Mitt Romney. These "anti-Romney" forces have bent over backward and gone through a long list of hopefuls in the hopes of finding another candidate -- any other candidate to avoid voting for Romney.

The teabagger/evangelicals finally coalesced around a candidate and gave Newt Gingrich a big win in that state. Gingrich is a seriously flawed candidate, but he had one advantage -- he was not Mitt Romney. Now, in another three days the people of Florida get their say in the primary race.

Florida is turning out to be the most interesting primary yet. Mitt Romney started out with a large lead in Florida. Then after South Carolina, Newt Gingrich jumped into a large lead. Now Romney seems to be mounting something of a comeback. The latest polls show Romney is either tied with Gingrich or has regained the lead. Even respected poll analyst Nate Silver says the race in Florida could go either way (although he now has Romney with a slight advantage, but one within the margin of error). It could all turn on what Florida voters think about last night's debate. Here are the latest two polls:

CNN/TIME/ORC POLL
Mitt Romney...............36%
Newt Gingrich...............34%
Rick Santorum...............11%
Ron Paul...............9%
None/No opinion...............11%

RASMUSSEN POLL
Mitt Romney...............39%
Newt Gingrich...............31%
Rick Santorum...............12%
Ron Paul...............9%
Other/Undecided...............11%

The South Carolina and now Florida primaries have exposed that there is a clear divide in the Republican Party. I'll call them the "Romneys" (establishment and moderate Republicans) and the "anti-Romneys" (the teabaggers and evangelicals). The "Romneys" want as mainstream a candidate as possible. They don't want a candidate that could hurt them down-ballot. On the other hand, the "anti-Romneys" want to move the party far to the right by choosing an ultra-right-wing candidate. Ideology is more important to them than electoral possibilities.

Next Tuesday one of these groups will come out on the short end, and whichever it is, their candidate will have a much more difficult path to the nomination. That has both camps worried. If Gingrich wins then the campaign is likely to be an extended one and could even go to a brokered convention. Amazingly, there is still talk of a new candidate -- if not now, then at the convention. The "Romneys" will want someone like Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie, or Jeb Bush.

And the "anti-Romneys" may still be open for a new candidate too -- especially if Mitt Romney wins in Florida. My fellow Texas blogger over at Half Empty recently got polled by some Republican-leaning organization (they thought he was a right-winger I guess) that wanted to know what he would think of Sen. Jim DeMint as a presidential candidate.

I could never vote for a Republican (thanks to the DNA I got from my father and both grandfathers who also never voted GOP), but I have to admit this Republican race has gotten more interesting with each passing day. It's kind of like passing a wreck on the freeway -- you don't want to slow down and look, but you just can't help doing it.

Perhaps the most incisive comment on the Republican presidential race was made by Fidel Castro. He said:

I must point out that the campaign to select a Republican candidate as the possible future president of this globalized and far-reaching empire has become —I say this in all seriousness— the greatest competition of idiocy and ignorance that has ever been heard.

I think he's right.