GOP Still Unsure About Wall Street Willie

We hear many pundits (even Republican pundits) saying these days that the GOP presidential nomination race will be a long one -- possibly even going to the convention without a clear winner. That's quite a change from a few months ago, when virtually all of them were ready to hand the nomination to Wall Street Willie (Willard Mitt Romney). The chart above gives us a clue as to why this is true.

Eleven states have voted so far (holding either a primary or a caucus), and Romney has reached 50% in one of those states -- Nevada. The only reason he holds a significant lead in delegates so far is because he won the only two states giving all their delegates to the primary winner -- Arizona and Florida. In all of the other states he has had to share delegates with his opponents, and in most of them will receive less than half of the delegates.

Romney should reach the 50% mark in a couple of states on Super Tuesday -- Massachusetts and Virginia. That's because Massachusetts is where he lives and served as governor, while only he and Ron Paul qualified to be on the Virginia ballot. In a lot of the other states voting on Super Tuesday, he is not likely to do nearly that well. He trails badly in Georgia, Oklahoma, and Tennessee. And Ohio is looking like a toss-up (but even if he wins there, he is probably not going to reach the 40% mark).

The fact of the matter is that old Wall Street Willie still has not been able to convince the majority of Republicans nationwide that he would make the best candidate. The establishment has accepted him, but the teabaggers and evangelicals are still looking for someone else -- and that's pretty bad considering the someone else is either Santorum or Gingrich.

Here are some of the latest polls for Super Tuesday states:

RASMUSSEN POLL (Tennessee)
Rick Santorum...............34%
Mitt Romney...............30%
Newt Gingrich...............18%
Ron Paul...............8%

AMERICAN RESEARCH GROUP POLL (Tennessee)
Rick Santorum...............35%
Mitt Romney...............31%
Newt Gingrich...............20%
Ron Paul...............9%
Undecided...............5%

NBC NEWS/MARIST POLL (Ohio)
Rick Santorum...............34%
Mitt Romney...............32%
Newt Gingrich...............15%
Ron Paul...............13%
Undecided...............7%

REUTERS/IPSOS POLL (Ohio)
Rick Santorum...............32%
Mitt Romney...............32%
Newt Gingrich...............17%
Ron Paul...............6%