The Race Goes On And On And On

Last Tuesday Willard Mitt Romney (aka Wall Street Willie) won the Illinois primary rather handily (by a double-digit margin). That has some political pundits claiming that he has finally got his campaign on track and is once again the "inevitable" GOP candidate. The problem is that's not the first time we have heard that.

We heard it after New Hampshire (and then he lost South Carolina). We heard it after Florida and Nevada (and then he lost Minnesota and Colorado). We heard it again after Michigan and Arizona (only to have mixed results on Super Tuesday and then defeats in Alabama and Mississippi). The pundits seem to be searching for any excuse to name Romney as the anointed one -- and thus justify their early predictions on the race.

The truth is that this GOP nomination race is still far from over. While slightly more than half of the states have now voted, Wall Street Willie still only has about half the delegates he needs to win the nomination -- and has received less than half of the votes cast so far. I think he is probably the favorite, but he's still a long way from being "inevitable". And that will most likely be highlighted again this weekend (Saturday, March 24th) as the Louisiana primary is held.

All previous polls have shown Romney is trailing in Louisiana -- and with every state that he loses now, a brokered convention becomes a more real possibility. Yesterday a new poll was released regarding Louisiana, and it also shows Romney trailing Santorum by about 13 points -- and there's just not enough time for him to put a lot of advertising money into the state to turn that around (like he did in states like Florida, Michigan, and Illinois). here are those new poll numbers:

MAGELLAN STRATEGIES POLL (Louisiana)
Rick Santorum...............37%
Mitt Romney...............24%
Newt Gingrich...............24%
Ron Paul...............3%
Buddy Roemer...............3%
Rick Perry...............3%
Undecided...............6%

NOTE -- Roemer and Perry have dropped out of the race, but they are still on the ballot.