Will His Political Courage Hurt President Obama In November ?

The other day President Obama took a very politically-courageous stand. He said he believed in the right of same-sex couples to marry. While I am very proud of the president for taking this stand, I have to admit that it almost immediately brought to mind a disturbing thought -- Will this hurt his chances for re-election in November? After all, the folks in North Carolina showed us this week that there are still a lot of religious bigots around.

Evidently the folks at the Gallup Poll had the same question, because they immediately went out and conducted a survey. Here are the results of the survey (conducted on May 10th with a random sample of 1,013 adults -- and a margin of error of 4 points):

LESS LIKELY TO VOTE FOR OBAMA NOW
General public...............26%
Democrats...............10%
Independents..............23%
Republicans...............52%

MORE LIKELY TO VOTE FOR OBAMA NOW
General public...............13%
Democrats...............24%
Independents...............11%
Republicans...............2%

WON'T MAKE ANY DIFFERENCE
General public...............60%
Democrats...............65%
Independents...............63%
Republicans...............46%

DO YOU APPROVE/DISAPPROVE OF OBAMA'S POSITION?

General public
approve...............51%
disapprove...............45%

Democrats
approve...............71%
disapprove...............25%

Independents
approve...............53%
disapprove...............44%

Republicans
approve...............23%
disapprove...............74%

Frankly, those numbers don't look so bad to me. I think we can discount the Democratic and Republican numbers, since most of those voters will vote for their party nominee. That leaves the Independents. And a majority of them (53%) agree with the president's position -- and an even bigger majority (63%) say it won't have any effect on how they vote. Even among those who say it might affect their vote, the difference between the positive and the negative is small.

But there is something else that this poll couldn't measure -- the effect on progressives and liberals (who have been disappointed with the president's moderate views and actions). The president's courageous political stand may have gone a long way to bringing those voters back into the fold (it did with me, and I was one of those disaffected progressives). And that's something that needed to happen.

In addition, I don't think this really helps Willard Mitt Romney (aka Wall Street Willie). A minority of the population agrees with him, and this just diverts attention away from his economic argument (which is feeble, but still his best chance to win).

In the final analysis, I don't think the president's courageous stand will hurt him in the coming election -- and it may actually have helped.