Most Still Think Obama Will Win Re-Election

The Gallup Poll is out with a new survey. This one didn't ask who the public is going to vote for, but who they think is going to win the election in November. The interesting thing is that Romney has not been able to convince many voters that he is going to be the winner. Back in May, Obama held a 20 point advantage in the number of people who thought he would win. Currently, he holds a 22 point advantage. At least so far, Romney just doesn't inspire voter confidence in his ability to beat the president:=. Here are the numbers:

WHO WILL WIN THE NOVEMBER ELECTION?

MAY 2012
Obama...............56%
Romney...............36%

AUGUST 2012
Obama...............58%
Romney...............36%

INDEPENDENTS
Obama...............58%
Romney...............35%

REPUBLICANS
Obama...............32%
Romney...............60%

DEMOCRATS
Obama...............80%
Romney...............16%

The poll also asked which candidate would make a good president. Interestingly, the person who got the higher percentage on that poll in the last two elections (when that question was asked at this point in the campaign) went on to win the election. In 2004, Bush had 40% to Kerry's 33%, and in 2008, Obama had 29% to McCain's 25%. Here are the numbers for this year:

WHICH CANDIDATE WOULD MAKE A GOOD PRESIDENT?

GENERAL PUBLIC
Obama...............38%
Romney...............31%
Both...............12%
Neither...............17%

INDEPENDENTS
Obama...............32%
Romney...............25%
Both...............15%
Neither...............24%

REPUBLICANS
Obama...............6%
Romney...............71%
Both...............8%
Neither...............14%

DEMOCRATS
Obama...............77%
Romney...............3%
Both...............10%
Neither...............10%

I don't know that this means anything at all, but it is interesting. I do think the Republicans need to try and convince their own voters that Romney has a chance, with only 6 in 10 thinking that right now. If they can't accomplish that, a good portion of the disillusioned 40% may stay home on election day.

NOTE -- The poll was taken between August 20th and 22nd of a random sample of 1,033 adults, and has a margin of error of 4 points.