As the regular readers of this blog will know, I have an affinity for polls and frequently write about poll results. Their is a new poll out that is a bit better than most other polls -- because they polled over 3,000 people instead of the usual 1,000. This gives the poll a smaller margin of error (about 2 points instead of the usual 3.5 to 4 points). It is the latest Washington Post/Kaiser Foundation Poll.
Most of the poll results should provide a bit of encouragement to Democrats. But there is a small section that I found rather troubling, because it showed that some of the Republican lies may be starting to be accepted by too many Americans. This section of the poll was on job creation, and what sorts of action by government would help to stimulate job creation. I'm going to look at this troubling part of the poll first (and then we'll show the more positive poll results). Consider these numbers:
WOULD CUTTING PERSONAL INCOME TAXES HELP THE JOB SITUATION?
It would help...............51%
It would hurt...............23%
Make no difference...............23%
WOULD CUTTING TAXES ON BUSINESSES HELP THE JOB SITUATION?
It would help...............54%
It would hurt...............21%
Make no difference...............21%
WOULD CUTTING THE FEDERAL BUDGET DEFICIT HELP THE JOB SITUATION?
It would help...............53%
It would hurt...............22%
Make no difference...............20%
Why do I find these numbers troubling? Because it shows that less than a quarter of the American people understand the reason why new jobs are created. They seem to have bought into the Republican lie (and it is a lie -- they know better) that the reason jobs are not being created is because businesses don't have the money to create those jobs. That is just not true. Corporations are sitting on trillions of dollars (more cash reserves than ever before), but they are not creating new jobs. They are not creating new jobs because they can meet current demand for their goods and services with the employees they currently have.
The truth is that money does not create jobs. Jobs are created by a growing demand for goods and services (i.e., the mass of people wanting those goods and services and having the money to spend to buy them). Any business person who is not experiencing a growth in demand for his product or service would be foolish to hire new employees, because that would decrease his profit margin -- and businesses are in business to make a profit, not to create jobs. But when demand is growing, business people will spend the money to hire new employees (even if they have to borrow that money) because those new employees will help them meet the growing demand -- and increase their profits.
This is simply good business, and is taught in all good business schools -- to hire only the amount of employees that are needed to meet the demand for goods/services. Hiring too few employees will result in poor service to the customer (and decreased profits), and hiring more employees than are needed will result in money wasted (and decreased profits). It is of prime importance for any business to have the correct numbers of employees -- the number that will provide good service to consumers and therefore maximize business profits.
Giving a business more money through tax breaks will not make that business hire unneeded employees -- the business person will simply put that money in the bank. They will undoubtably be happier to keep more of their money (as any taxpayer would be), but it will not result in any new job creation. The truth is that taxes, whether low or high have little or nothing to do with job creation. There have been times of high taxation with good job creation, and times of low taxation with poor job creation. The simple truth is that demand creates jobs, not money.
And the same is true about budget deficits. They have nothing to do with job creation. There have been times of high budget deficits and good job creation, and there have been times of low budget deficits and poor job creation. The size of the budget deficit (or lack of a deficit) does not create jobs. The ONLY thing that creates new jobs is a growing demand for goods/services.
The correct answer for all three of the questions above is that they make no difference at all in job creation. So, why are the Republicans saying these things will create jobs? Because they want new tax cuts for themselves and their rich friends -- and they cannot get those tax cuts unless they can convince people that it would also benefit them (such as creating new jobs). They know it's not true, but that doesn't matter as long as they can convince voters that it is true. And the same is true of the budget deficits. Republicans don't really care about the deficits (which are much higher when they are in power). They are simple using it as an excuse to cut programs they never liked (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Food Stamps, etc.).
It is disappointing that too many Americans seem to be buying into these Republican economic lies. Obviously, the Democrats need to do a better job of educating the public about what causes job creation -- demand. But enough about that for now. Below the fold, I show you the poll questions that are much more encouraging.
IF THE ELECTION WAS TODAY, WHO WOULD YOU VOTE FOR?
Obama...............50%
Romney...............43%
ARE MOST OF YOUR FAMILY/FRIENDS REPUBLICANS, DEMOCRATS OR INDEPENDENTS?
Republican...............30%
Democrat...............35%
Independent...............22%
Other...............5%
DO YOU THINK OF YOURSELF AS A REPUBLICAN, DEMOCRAT OR INDEPENDENT?
Republican...............25%
Democrat...............34%
Independent...............34%
Other...............4%
DO THE POLICIES OF EACH PARTY HELP OR HURT YOU ECONOMIC INTERESTS?
Democrats
Help...............45%
Hurt...............45%
Republicans
Help...............37%
Hurt...............51%
SHOULD ORGANIZED RELIGIOUS GROUPS STAY OUT OF POLITICS OR STAND UP FOR THEIR BELIEFS IN POLITICS?
Stay out of politics...............55%
Stand up in politics...............42%
SHOULD THERE BE A HIGH DEGREE OF SEPARATION OF RELIGION & GOVERNMENT OR SHOULD GOVERNMENT TAKE STEPS TO PROTECT RELIGIOUS HERITAGE?
High degree of separation...............55%
Gov. involvement with religion...............40%
SHOULD ABORTION BE LEGAL IN ALL/MOST CASES OR ILLEGAL IN ALL/MOST CASES?
Legal...............55%
Illegal...............42%
SHOULD IT BE LEGAL OR ILLEGAL FOR GAY & LESBIAN COUPLES TO MARRY?
Legal...............53%
Illegal...............42%
WOULD WE HAVE FEWER PROBLEMS IF PEOPLE WERE TREATED MORE EQUALLY IN THIS COUNTRY?
Yes...............70%
No...............28%
WOULD YOU SUPPORT RAISING TAXES ON HOUSEHOLDS WITH YEARLY INCOME OVER $250,000?
Yes...............65%
No...............33%
WOULD YOU SUPPORT RAISING TAXES ON THE MIDDLE CLASS?
Yes...............11%
No...............88%
WOULD YOU SUPPORT REDUCING SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFITS?
Yes...............17%
No...............82%
WOULD YOU SUPPORT REDUCING MEDICARE BENEFITS?
Yes...............21%
No...............77%
SHOULD MEDICARE BE KEPT AS IT IS OR CHANGED TO A VOUCHER SYSTEM TO PURCHASE PRIVATE INSURANCE?
Kept as it is..............58%
Voucher system...............36%
SHOULD ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS IN THIS COUNTRY BE GIVEN A CHANCE TO KEEP THEIR JOBS AND APPLY FOR LEGAL STATUS?
Yes...............61%
No...............35%
SHOULD THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT REGULATE THE RELEASE OF GREENHOUSE GASES TO CONTROL GLOBAL WARMING?
Yes...............74%
No...............21%
DO YOU FAVOR OR OPPOSE STRICTER GUN CONTROL LAWS?
Favor...............51%
Oppose...............47%
Interesting that, despite the misconception about taxes and job creation, 65% still favor raising taxes on wealthy households. Perhaps people are differentiating between households and businesses. At any rate, the Democrats should put some ad money into educating voters on this subject, as you say.
ReplyDeleteThe very lopsided response on the global-warming question is interesting. I suspect it was encouraged by a summer in which thousands of heat records were broken within the US alone. There will be more summers like it. If the Republicans keep clinging to global-warming denialism, it will be the millstone that sinks them.