The folks over at Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research think that most polls may be underestimating President Obama's support, and that the election is not really as close as the media is reporting. Now this polling organization is a Democratic polling company, so take this however you want, but I think they may well have a good point here. Why do they think this? They believe that people who have only or use mostly cell phones instead of landlines are being undercounted.
Many polling organizations include about 30% cell phone users in their polls, and others don't include any cell phone users at all. However, that 30% figure is the number of people only using only cell phones in 2011. Since that figure is growing by at least 3.5% every six months, that means that the current number of cell phone-only users is probably about 37% (if not more) -- and that means the polls are undercounting those people who have abandoned landlines to use only cell phones.
Does this make any real difference? Note the chart above. When cell phone users are polled they give President Obama a lead of 11 points (53% to 42%). But when landlines users are polled they only give the president a 1 point advantage (48% to 47%). That's quite a difference. Why should that be? Well, look at the following numbers:
* 43% of Hispanic adults use only cell phones.
* 37% of African-Americans use only cell phones.
* 49% of 18 to 24 year-olds use only cell phones.
* 60% of 25 to 29 year-olds use only cell phones.
* 51% of 30 to 34 year-olds use only cell phones.
It goes without saying that these groups (along with women) are the groups with the largest percentage of support for the president -- and that explains the difference between the cell phone and landline users shown by the chart above. It is quite possible that polls using cell phone users as only 30% or less of their respondents are undercounting the president's support. And unless this is changed, polls in future years may be even more out of whack.
Many polling organizations include about 30% cell phone users in their polls, and others don't include any cell phone users at all. However, that 30% figure is the number of people only using only cell phones in 2011. Since that figure is growing by at least 3.5% every six months, that means that the current number of cell phone-only users is probably about 37% (if not more) -- and that means the polls are undercounting those people who have abandoned landlines to use only cell phones.
Does this make any real difference? Note the chart above. When cell phone users are polled they give President Obama a lead of 11 points (53% to 42%). But when landlines users are polled they only give the president a 1 point advantage (48% to 47%). That's quite a difference. Why should that be? Well, look at the following numbers:
* 43% of Hispanic adults use only cell phones.
* 37% of African-Americans use only cell phones.
* 49% of 18 to 24 year-olds use only cell phones.
* 60% of 25 to 29 year-olds use only cell phones.
* 51% of 30 to 34 year-olds use only cell phones.
It goes without saying that these groups (along with women) are the groups with the largest percentage of support for the president -- and that explains the difference between the cell phone and landline users shown by the chart above. It is quite possible that polls using cell phone users as only 30% or less of their respondents are undercounting the president's support. And unless this is changed, polls in future years may be even more out of whack.
only people using land lines are old people that are wheel chair bound and they all are white republicans.ha
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