The Battle Over Control Of The Senate

(The cartoon above is from examiner.com in a post from last February.)

Months ago, the Republican Party was riding high and was even talking about taking complete control of Congress by flipping the Senate. And many political pundits thought that could be done, since a change in only a few seats would accomplish that. Fortunately, that's not working out so well for them. Thanks to a combination of their selecting some pretty poor candidates, and the fear many voters have of giving the Republicans too much power, it is now looking like the Democrats will retain their hold on the Senate -- and may even increase their advantage there (though it is still unlikely they can reach the filibuster-proof number of 60). Here are the latest poll numbers in the senate races:

CONNECTICUT
This is still a very close race, and could go either way right now. I still believe this largely Democratic state will vote to elect Murphy on election day.

Quinnipiac Poll (10/4)
Murphy (D)...............47%
McMahon (R)...............48%

WASHINGTON
It looks like the Democratic incumbent is going to cruise to a substantial victory.

Rasmussen Poll (10/4)
Cantwell (D)...............57%
Baumgartner (R)...............37%

VIRGINIA
This race has been close for months (and was one of the seats the GOP was counting on winning), but the Democrat now has a slight advantage.

WSJ/NBC/Marist Poll (10/3)
Kaine (D)...............49%
Allen (R)...............44%

Roanoke College Poll (10/2)
Kaine (D)...............47%
Allen (R)...............37%

OHIO
Another seat the GOP thought they could flip, but it nows looks like the Democrat (Brown) will win re-election.

WSJ/NBC/Marist Poll (10/3)
Brown (D)...............50%
Mandel (R)...............41%

Public Policy Polling (10/2)
Brown (D)...............49%
Mandel (R)...............41%

Columbus Dispatch Poll (10/1)
Brown (D)...............49%
Mandel (R)...............39%

FLORIDA
The GOP thought Nelson was vulnerable, but their candidate has been trailing him by a significant margin for quite a while now. It looks like Nelson will be re-elected.

WSJ/NBC/Marist Poll (10/3)
Nelson (D)...............52%
Mack (R)...............41%

Suffolk/WSVN Poll (10/2)
Nelson (D)...............40%
Mack (R)...............34%

MISSOURI
The Republicans were sure they were going to win this race, but then a teabagger (who can't stop shooting himself in the foot) won their primary. Now most pundits think McCaskill will be re-elected.

Rasmussen Poll (10/3)
McCaskill (D)...............51%
Akin (R)...............45%

Public Policy Polling (10/3)
McCaskill (D)...............46%
Akin (R)...............40%

We Ask America Poll (10/2)
McCaskill (D)...............46%
Akin (R)...............45%

WISCONSIN
This one is still pretty close, but the Democrat has now edged out into the lead. The GOP's once bright opportunity now seems to be slipping through their fingers.

Marquette University Poll (10/3)
Baldwin (D)...............48%
Thompson (R)...............44%

ARIZONA
This one is a shocker. It was supposed to be an easy Republican win, but it is a virtual tie and could go either way.

Public Policy Polling (10/3)
Carmona (D)...............45%
Flake (R)...............43%

HighGround/ Moore Poll (9/28)
Carmona (D)...............40%
Flake (R)...............43%

TEXAS
There was never any doubt the Republicans would keep this seat.

Texas Lyceum Poll (10/3)
Sadler (D)...............24%
Cruz (R)...............50%

NEVADA
Another very close race. Either party could win.

We Ask America Poll (10/2)
Berkley (D)...............45%
Heller (R)...............45%

RHODE ISLAND 
Looks like the incumbent Democrat will win easily.

WPRI/Fleming Poll (10/2)
Whitehouse (D)...............56%
Hinckley (R)...............30%

MASSACHUSETTS
Still a close race, but most recent polls show the Democrat in the lead. About 52% of voters say they are frightened the Republicans will take over the Senate (and that will help Warren in this very Democratic state). I think there's an excellent chance for Democrats to unseat the Republican incumbent.

WBUR/MassINC Poll (10/1)
Warren (D)...............49%
Brown (R)...............45%

Boston Globe Poll (9/30)
Warren (D)...............43%
Brown (R)...............38%

NEW MEXICO
Republicans had high hopes here, but those hopes have completely evaporated.

Rasmussen Poll (10/1)
Heinrich (D)...............52%
Wilson (R)...............39%

We Ask America Poll (10/1)
Heinrich (D)...............52%
Wilson (R)...............41%

HAWAII
It looks like this seat will stay safely in Democratic hands.

Honolulu Civil Beat/MRG Poll (10/1)
Hirono (D)...............55%
Lingle (R)...............39%

MAINE
Looks like an Independent has this race well in hand.

Critical Insights Poll (9/30)
King (I)...............50%
Dill (D)...............12%
Summers (R)...............28%

Rasmussen Poll (9/27)
King (I)...............45%
Dill (D)...............14%
Summers (R)...............33%

PENNSYLVANIA
This race is looking pretty good for Democrats.

Morning Call Poll (9/28)
Casey (D)...............44%
Smith (R)...............36%

MICHIGAN
Democrat Stabenow will win re-election.

Gravis Marketing Poll (9/28)
Stabenow (D)...............54%
Hoekstra (R)...............40%

INDIANA
This is a Republican state and should have been a fairly easy win for them. But they kicked out a fairly moderate Republican and replaced him with a teabagger, and now the Democrats have a real chance to win. Currently very close.

Howey/DePauw Poll (9/27)
Donnelly (D)...............40%
Mourdock (R)...............38%

MINNESOTA
Democrats will easily hold on to this seat.

Star-Tribune/Mason-Dixon Poll (9/27)
Klobuchar (D)...............57%
Bills (R)...............28%