Can The GOP Change And Save Itself ?

I don't need to go into much depth about the trouble the Republican Party finds itself in. The three graphics above do that pretty effectively. Some might say it's a tribute to the effectiveness of the Democrats, but I disagree. The Republicans would be in even more trouble if it were nor for the timidity of too many Democratic officials. No, this is a hole the Republicans have dug all by themselves -- by stridently supporting policies that have alienated minorities, women, young people, the LGBT community, and growing numbers of white voters.

It has now become clear even to some Republican leaders that they must alter some of their policies to be more in line with modern, reasonable, and inclusive beliefs -- or risk falling further behind with each presidential year election. They may make some small comebacks in off-year elections (like in 2010) when many people stay away from the polls, but those small gains will disappear with even greater losses when presidential year elections take place. If the GOP doesn't change, it will continue to become an ever smaller minority party, until they are no longer relevant.

The questions now are -- can they change, and if so, how fast? Some Republican pundits have already voiced a desire for change. Bill Kristol now says congressional Republicans must allow higher taxes on the rich, and Sean Hannity has reversed course and is now wanting a sensible immigration policy with a path to citizenship. But the elected officials of the party, especially those in Washington (D.C.) may have a difficult time making any policy changes -- because to do so would anger many in their own party's base.

Years ago, in an effort to achieve a working majority, the GOP actively courted racists, far-right-wingers, and evangelical fundamentalists. It worked too well. Now those groups have seized the party leadership in many states and run moderates out of the party. The party is now left with a base of voters who champion mean-spirited, racist and anti-immigrant, misogynistic, and anti-equal rights policies -- in addition to their old policies of favoring the corporations and the rich. And this base cannot seem to accept that it's those policies that is hurting the party. Far too many of them still believe they just didn't push those policies hard enough or nominate a candidate far enough to the right.

If the congressional Republicans finally decide they must change their policies, they could well find themselves going down to defeat in a Republican primary -- where the racist teabaggers, religious fundamentalists, and corporate apologists rule the roost. This is a huge problem for GOP leaders. Unless they can somehow create a more-inclusive base of voters and out-vote the current base, they will continue to offer candidates with policies far too extreme for the population in general elections.

The party can change -- and in fact, they must change. But that change will not be easy, and will take a long time to complete. Personally, I think they will nominate a presidential candidate in 2016 that will be much more of an extremist right-winger than Romney, because the base has not yet accepted the reality of their predicament.