Gallup Shows Unemployment Rate Drop

We don't have the Labor Department's official unemployment rate yet. It may (or may not, because of Hurricane Sandy) be released today. But the Gallup Poll has released it's monthly poll on the unemployment rate -- and that has proven over the last few years to be a fairly reliable indicator of what the government's rate will turn out to be (usually within a tenth of a point or so of the Labor Department rate). Here's how they've compared over the last few months:

SEPTEMBER
Gallup poll...............7.9
Government...............7.8

AUGUST
Gallup poll...............8.1
Government...............8.1

JULY
Gallup poll...............8.2
Government...............8.3

JUNE
Gallup poll...............8.0
Government...............8.2

MAY
Gallup poll...............8.0
Government...............8.2

APRIL
Gallup poll...............8.3
Government...............8.1

MARCH
Gallup poll...............8.4
Government...............8.2

So what does the new Gallup Poll predict? Gallup (see graph above) says the unemployment rate for October is 7.0%. That's a pretty nice drop -- from 7.9% in September to 7.0% in October (a drop of 0.9%). Those are the unrevised figures. The revised figures also show a nice drop -- from 8.1% in September to 7.4% in October (a drop of 0.7%). If the Labor Department figures reflect the same kind of drop (and it probably will), that will be very good news for President Obama -- and for the country.

This is certainly not what the Republicans were hoping to see. They have done their best to keep the rate high in the hope of that helping their candidate, Willard Mitt Romney, on election day. Blaming the president for the unemployment rate doesn't seem to be working out for them.