What Will Harry Do ?

There is no doubt in my mind that the filibuster procedures in the Senate must be reformed. Those who wrote the Constitution never intended for it to take more than a simple majority to pass a bill through the U.S. Senate, but that is effectively what the Republicans have created with their abuse of the filibuster rule (requiring at least 60 votes to even vote on a bill). This rule was not in the Constitution. It was created by the Senate, and it can be changed by the Senate (and has been altered in the past). At the very least, the rule should be changed to require  a real talking filibuster -- making one or more senators keep the floor and keep talking to keep the filibuster going.

And the Democrats in the Senate have the chance to change the filibuster, making it harder to sustain, at the beginning of the next Congress in January. All it will require is for 51 of them to vote for the change when the Senate adopts its rules for the next session of Congress. And it looks like they are getting close to that magic number. The Huffington Post has been attempting to track the number of votes filibuster reform has in the new Senate, and here is how they have it figured so far:

The talking filibuster is the most ambitious reform on the table. A version of it, also backed by Merkley, came to a vote in early 2011, when it was defeated 49-46. Five of those yea-voting Democrats are no longer in the Senate, leaving reformers with a base of 41 votes. One Democrat who didn't vote, Sen. John Kerry (Mass.), supports the talking filibuster, putting the tally at 42.

Eight incoming senators who caucus with Democrats have expressed support for it -- Tammy Baldwin (Wisc.), Elizabeth Warren (Mass.), Martin Heinrich (N.M.), Heidi Heitkamp (N.D.), Mazie Hirono (Hawaii), Tim Kaine (Va.), Chris Murphy (Conn.) and Angus King (Maine) -- putting the number at 50. Simply having voted for a similar measure in the past, and expressing support for the concept subsequently, however, doesn't guarantee that a senator will support it again. Once Democrats release their full package of proposed reform, the process of firmly nailing down 51 votes begins in earnest.

But if those who have backed reform in the past combine with senators who have more recently voiced support for it, Vice President Joe Biden or Reid would both be in a position to put the measure over the top. The Constitution allows the vice president to break ties in the Senate.

The three Democrats who are likely to oppose filibuster reform are Carl Levin (Michigan), Mark Pryor (Arkansas), and Max Baucus (Montana). They are unlikely to change their vote this time. That leaves Dianne Feinstein (California), who did not vote last time. She could go either way, but has talked with Senator Merkley (Oregon) who is pushing the reform, and promises to consider voting for change. That means that without Majority Leader Harry Reid (Nevada), there will probably be either 50 or 51 votes to change the filibuster rules.

But that may not matter, because it may be up to Reid whether that reform even comes to the floor for a vote. Some think that with the number of votes for real reform getting close to a majority now, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Kentucky) might negotiate a much weaker reform with Reid and thus derail the needed reform -- something like speeding up votes on judicial nominations and not allowing a filibuster on conference committees, but keeping the right of the minority to block major legislation and presidential appointments.

I would like to think that Reid wouldn't fall for that, but he does have a history of wimping out at times. Two years ago, he derailed filibuster reform just because McConnell promised the GOP would stop abusing it -- a promise the Republicans quickly broke after the rules were set. Will Reid get suckered by McConnell again?

Personally, I think the Senate Democratic Caucus should make Reid promise to support a real filibuster reform before re-electing him as Majority Leader, but that probably won't happen. That leaves it up to us voters. I urge you to call or write Harry Reid. Tell him to support real filibuster reform, and nothing short of that. Tell him he must not give in to the Republicans, and allow the minority to continue to obstruct everything the president tries to do.