Senate Votes Tomorrow On Gun Filibuster

When the new gun bills emerged from the Senate Judiciary Committee a couple of weeks ago, four GOP senators (Cruz, Rubio, Lee, Paul) announced they would filibuster the bill and not even allow it to reach the Senate floor for a vote. That number of senators joining the GOP filibuster has now expanded to 14 senators -- including Minority Leader McConnell.

After merging two of the gun bills together (the ones requiring background checks on all gun sales and increasing federal penalties for gun trafficking), Majority Leader Reid now says he will try to stop the filibuster tomorrow (Thursday) by demanding a cloture vote. If he can get 60 votes he will be able to bring the gun bill to the Senate floor, where it can be debated and amendments from both parties considered (and voted on).

The cloture vote to end the filibuster is expected to be close. A few Republicans have said they want the bill to be debated, amended, and voted up or down -- about five of them at last count. The problem is that a few blue dog Democrats may vote to uphold the filibuster, because they don't want a vote. A prime example is Arkansas Senator Pryor, who says he hasn't made up his mind how to vote on the cloture motion. Pryor must run for re-election in 2014, and doesn't want to anger people on either side of the issue.

This means it is still up in the air. The gun bill might, or might not, get to the floor for debate and a vote (in spite of the fact that 9 out of 10 Americans favor the bill). Will the blue dog Democrats vote to uphold the filibuster? Will enough Republicans vote to end the filibuster to get the bill to the Senate floor? The truth is that nobody knows. The vote on cloture could go either way.

I have to believe the Republicans are playing a dangerous game here. They stand a good chance of angering a lot of people if they are able to stop the bill from even being voted on. I've read several pundits that say it would hurt them in the 2016 election, where they will need independents and moderates to have a chance of regaining the White House. I think their problems could come even sooner. They are hoping to win some Senate seats back from the Democrats in 2014 -- but to do that, they will need those same independents and moderates. Refusing to even allow the gun bill to get an up or down vote is not going to win many votes.

I'll have my TV on C-SPAN Thursday. This is a critical vote if there is any chance of getting a gun bill through Congress this year.