A Look At Same-Sex Marriage Approval Before The Supreme Court Decision

We are just days away from two important Supreme Court decisions regarding same-sex marriage. The first will decide the constitutionality of California's Proposition 8 (which denied the legality of those marriages in that state), and the second will decide the constitutionality of the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) -- which prevents the federal government from recognizing same-sex marriages and granting equal rights to those marriages. These decisions will undoubtably have a big effect how quickly same-sex marriages are legalized across this nation.

Because of this, I thought it would be a good idea to take one more look at what the American people think about this issue. And conveniently, a new poll has just been released that contains that information -- the CNN/ORC Poll. This poll was done between June 11th and 13th with 1,014 nationwide adults -- and has a possible sampling error of 3 points. One of the most interesting aspects of the poll is in just how much the American public opinion has changed in only the last four years. In 2009, a statistically significant majority opposed same-sex marriage. Today, the 2009 numbers have flipped and a significant majority is now in favor.

JUNE 2013
support...............55%
oppose...............44%

APRIL 2009
support...............44%
oppose...............54%

In 2009, the support was -10, while the current support is +11. That's a 21 point difference, and represents a huge shift in public opinion in only four years. Here are two additional questions the poll asked, which tend to verify the public support for same-sex marriage:

DO YOU THINK THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD RECOGNIZE SAME-SEX MARRIAGES PERFORMED IN STATES WHERE IT IS LEGAL?
yes...............60%
no...............39%
no opinion...............1%

DO YOU THINK HOMOSEXUAL RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN CONSENTING ADULTS IS MORALLY WRONG?
morally wrong...............44%
not a moral issue...............54%
no opinion...............2%

And another aspect of the poll showed the approval will only grow in the future -- because younger people approve of same-sex marriage more than older people. As the chart above shows, those under 50 have a 62% approval rate, while those over 50 have a 46% approval rate. And when you break the age groups down further, the differences become even starker. Here is that breakdown:

SAME-SEX MARRIAGE APPROVAL BY AGE
18 to 34...............68%
35 to 49...............56%
50 to 64...............51%
65 & over...............37%

The only age group with a higher disapproval rating is the 65 & older group -- and as they die off and are replaced with younger Americans, approval in this group will rise (as will the approval rate for all Americans).

The only other groups with a statistically significant disapproval rate are rural people and Republicans -- and the population of rural America continues to decline. This puts the Republicans in a bad situation. They are trying to fight an inevitable reality -- trying to defend a position held by a shrinking minority.

This does not mean the Supreme Court will come down on the side of equal rights. This court has made some strange decisions -- like giving corporations personhood, and allowing unlimited & secret campaign donations. But even a decision against the legality of same-sex marriages cannot change the future. It might slow it down, but it won't change it.