NYC Mayor Race Is Very Volatile

At this point there are a couple of things that can be said about the Democratic side of the New York City mayor's race. First, it is very volatile. There have been three different leaders in that race just since July 24th, and all of them had a lead larger than the Quinnipiac  University Poll margin of error (4.1 points). And the person who seems to be benefitting the most from the fall of Anthony Weiner is Bill de Blasio.

The latest Quinnipiac University Poll, taken of 579 likely Democratic primary voters between August 7th and 12th, shows de Blasio has now taken the lead (see top chart). Bill de Blasio now has 30% of the vote, while Christine Quinn has 24% and Bill Thompson has 22%. Anthony Weiner trails far behind with 10%, and John Liu has about 6%.

It now looks like it will come down to a run-off between two of three candidates -- deBlasio, Quinn, and Thompson. But with this race being so volatile, I'd be loath to pick which two will face off. There's still about three more weeks to go before the primary -- and that's an eternity considering how quickly the lead has been changing in this race.

As an admitted political junkie, I love these kind of contests.