Independents Are GOP's Biggest Problem

The congressional Republicans have created a lot of problems for themselves with their shutting down of the federal government (and their threat to let the government default by refusing to raise the debt ceiling). They have unified Democrats across the country and exacerbated the split within their own party -- especially between congressional Republicans and elected GOP officials outside the Beltway (like the GOP governors).

But while those are problems, they are not as serious as what their recent actions have done to the Republican Party brand among Independents. A few months (or even weeks) ago, the Independents held an equally low opinion of both Republicans and Democrats. That is no longer the case, as Independents have been moving away from the Republican Party.

That's primarily because the Independents blame the Republicans for the shutdown (51% to 37%). And their job approval for congressional Republicans has also dropped, with 69% now disapproving of the GOP (or about 7 out of 10 Independents) while only about 25% approve of the GOP.

But the number that should scare the Republicans the most is illustrated in the bottom chart shown above -- the party they would vote for in congressional elections if the election was held today. While this number was roughly equal only weeks ago, it is no longer so. Independents prefer Democrats over Republicans by a 9 point margin now (42% to 33%) -- and that could put Republican control of the House of Representatives in danger.

The gerrymandering done by Republican state legislatures gave the Republicans a lot of safe congressional seats, but it did not make all of the seats they currently hold safe. There are at least 24 congressional seats now held by Republicans that are considered to be competitive -- and the Democrats only need 17 seats to take control of the House. The important thing to remember is that it will be Independents who decide those 24 seats (since there are not enough Republicans or Democrats in those districts to assure victory).

There is still a year before the next election, but it's going to take the GOP a while to repair the damage. And if they make the government default on its loans, or keep the government shut down for an extended time, they will make it even tougher on themselves to repair the damage they are doing before November of 2014.

The charts above were made from the recent survey done by Public Policy Polling between October 4th and 6th of 1,000 voters nationwide (with a margin of error of 3.1 points).