Back in 2010, teabagger Paul LePage eked out a win in the governor's race in Maine. He only got about 38% of the popular vote, but that was enough because two other candidates (Independent Eliot Cutler and Democrat Libby Mitchell) split the rest of the vote.
LePage is a very unpopular governor, and there is no way he could get a majority of the popular vote. But he might not have to do that to get re-elected, because it is once again shaping up to be a 3-way race. Mike Michaud looks to be the Democratic nominee this time, and Eliot Cutler is running again as an Independent -- and those two look like they are again splitting the liberal/moderate vote in the state (although Cutler seems to be pulling a smaller percentage this time (he finished second in 2010).
The current survey shows Michaud in the lead with 38% and LePage closely behind with 36%. Cutler is running a distant third with 15%. But the difference between Michaud and LePage is within the poll's margin of error, meaning the race is currently a dead heat (and either one could win). LePage could finagle a win out of there being too many candidates in the race -- and that's sad, because a majority of Maine voters do not want LePage re-elected. He would easily lose to either of the other candidates in a 2-way race:
Michaud (D)...............53%
LePage (R)...............39%
Unsure...............8%
Cutler (I)...............49%
LePage (R)...............38%
Unsure...............13%
The only good news in this survey is that the 10% of voters who say they are not sure who to vote for are leaning fairly strongly toward Michaud. Most of them are moderate Democrats or unmarried women -- two groups that are very unlikely to vote for a Republican (especially a teabagger).
This will be a very interesting race to watch in the coming months.
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