Early Party Presidential Preferences In Iowa

One of the first states to choose their preference for president for each party in 2016 will be Iowa. The choices made by the party caucuses in that state can often give a candidate a boost going into other states, and defines who the major players are in each party. So, even though it is still very early, I thought it was interesting when Public Policy Polling queried Iowa voters on their presidential preferences.

The choice of Iowa Democrats was no surprise. Just like in other states, Iowa Democrats overwhelmingly support the nomination of Hillary Clinton. Unless something very unexpected happens in the next couple of years, Hillary can have the nomination simply by declaring that she is a candidate.

The Republican picture is very different -- but is the same as has been reflected in other states. There is no clear cut front-runner for the Republicans. The GOP race is wide open, and still waiting for a candidate to establish himself as the favorite. Will that happen in the next year or so, or will  the GOP enter the primaries with no favorite -- and engage in the same kind of dog-fight that hurt them in 2012?

It also looks like Iowa is leaning toward the Democrats, at least they are if Hillary is the nominee. Here is how she fared in this survey against some prominent Republicans:

Hillary Clinton...............45%
Jeb Bush...............41%
Unsure...............13%

Hillary Clinton...............45%
Chris Christie...............39%
Unsure...............17%

Hillary Clinton...............46%
Mike Huckabee...............42%
Unsure...............12%

Hillary Clinton...............47%
Rand Paul...............42%
Unsure...............11%

The Public Policy Polling survey was done between February 20th and 23rd of 869 Iowa voters, and has a margin of error of 3.3 points. For the party preferences, 335 Democrats were questioned (with a moe of 5.4 points) and 283 Republicans (with a moe of 5.8 points).