The Democrats Have A 7 To 9 Point Advantage In Party ID Over Republicans (But The 2014 House Election Is Close)

Fewer people these days are willing to identify themselves as Republicans. A few years ago the party ID of Republicans and Democrats was pretty equal -- but that was before the teabaggers took over the GOP in many states. They kicked out some moderates, and others left of their own accord -- because they didn't like the tone of the new GOP. Today only 24% of adults (and 26% of registered voters) now claim to be Republicans, while 33% of adults and registered voters still call themselves Democrats. That's a 7-point gap among registered voters, and a 9-point gap among all adults.

That does not necessarily mean the Democrats have a huge advantage in the coming election though. As the chart below shows, the Democrats currently hold only a 2-point advantage in the House generic ballot. That's a dead heat, since that 2 points is well within the survey's margin of error.

As I have said before, this coming election will be determined by the size of the turnout and the make-up of those who vote. If the turnout is small -- and the voters are mainly white, men, old, and rich, then the Republicans will do very well. But if nonwhites, women, young people, and working & middle class people vote in large numbers, then the Democrats will do very well (and could flip control of the House). Turnout will be everything in the 2014 election.

Both of the charts above were made from information contained in the recent ABC News / Washington Post Poll. The survey was taken between May 29th and June 1st of a random national sample of 1,002 adults, and has a 3.5 point margin of error.