Gallup Poll Indicates An Elevated Turnout For 2014 Election

The chart above was made from information contained in a recent Gallup Poll. The latest survey was done between August 7th and 10th of a random national sample of 1,032 adults, with a margin of error of 4 points. This latest survey is compared to Gallup Poll results in previous off-year elections, along with the actual voter turnout in those elections.

Democrats have been hoping for a larger than normal turnout for the 2014 election. That is because large turnouts usually favor Democratic candidates. And the results shown by Gallup for the past few off-year elections should give Democrats hope for this year's election.

Note that in the last five off-year elections the voter turnout was above 40% when congressional approval was low (26% or lower) -- and when congressional approval was not so low, the voter turnout dropped below 40%. This indicates that more voters turn out to vote in an off-year election when congressional approval is low. And congressional approval has never been as low as it currently is -- about 13% (8 points below the previous low in 2010).

Now you may be thinking to yourself that the last time congressional approval was low (21%) in 2010, the vote was very good for the Republicans and allowed them to flip control of the House of Representatives. But there were two aspects in 2010 that are not true for 2014 -- the House was controlled by Democrats, and most of the people disapproving of Congress were Republicans and GOP-leaning Independents.

In 2014 the Republicans control the House, and all segments of the public are angry with Congress (Republicans, Independents, and Democrats). While voter anger drove Republicans to the polls in large numbers in 2010, it will likely drive all three political elements to the polls in large numbers in 2014 -- and that favors the party not in control, the Democrats.

I know the political pundits are still predicting the Republicans will hang on to their House majority in this election (thanks to some effective gerrymandering) -- but I still believe there is a good chance that control of the House can flip to the Democrats. And a larger than normal turnout, combined with a definite anti-incumbent feeling among voters, can only increase Democratic chances.