U.S. Senate Race In Iowa Is Currently A Dead Heat

The chart above was made from information in a new Public Policy Polling survey. They surveyed 915 likely Iowa voters between August 22nd and 24th, and the poll has a margin of error of 3.2 points.

The senate race in Iowa is going to be very important this year. If the Republicans want to take over the majority in that legislative body, they will need to win this seat. But that is turning out to be tougher than expected. Right now the race is a dead heat between Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Joni Ernst (41% to 40%). There are three Independent candidates and a Libertarian in the race, but the combined support for all four is only about 5% -- not enough to have much effect on the race.

Looking at the demographics of the chart above, a couple of interesting things are apparent. First, women support the male Democratic candidate by the same margin that men support the female Republican candidate -- about 9 points. This would tend to give the Democrat a slight advantage, since women tend to vote in larger numbers than men.

Second, there is still a significant number of voters who say they are undecided -- about 14%. I believe the Republican candidate must take a majority of these undecided voters to win in November. Can she do that? No one knows. That makes this a very interesting race to watch as election day draws near.