One of the closest U.S. Senate races in the country this year has been the race for the open seat in Iowa, between Republican Joni Ernst and Democrat Bruce Braley. This race has been a dead heat for weeks now, but now a poll is giving a small lead to the Democratic candidate -- a lead that exceeds the margin of error of the poll.
It is the Loras College Poll -- taken between September 2nd and 5th of a random sample of 1200 Iowa voters (with a margin of error of 2.82 points). This poll gives Braley a small lead of 45.3% to 40.5% -- about 4.8 points. The poll also shows Braley has a small edge in voter personal values (1 point) and voter position on the issues (2 points) -- but those are within the poll's margin of error.
While this poll should encourage Democrats, it does not mean they are sure to win this race. With weeks to go before the November election, the poll shows there are still 14.2% of Iowa voters who have yet to make up their minds who to vote for in this election -- and that is plenty enough to throw the election to either candidate. If Braley is to win, he must take at least half of those undecided voters.
This is probably going to be an interesting race to follow right up until election day.
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