Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Support For And Against Presidential Ambitions Of Candidates



I found this survey interesting because it doesn't ask the members of each party who they would vote for in a primary. Instead, it asks which candidates they think should run in the primaries for their party's nomination -- a question that is far more relevant at this very early phase of the campaign. It can give a candidate an idea of whether they should even bother putting their hat in the ring (since someone saying they shouldn't even run is very unlikely to wind up supporting them later).

Sarah Palin has the strongest Republican opposition to her running for the GOP nomination. She has a -29 rating (meaning 29% more say she shouldn't run than say she should). Christie is second with a -15 rating. Others with a negative rating are Cruz (-4), Jindal (-6), Paul (-7), Perry (-11), and Santorum (-10). These candidates who currently have a double-digit negative rating will have a long and hard road to the nomination.

The Republicans with a positive view on their candidacy from the party's base voters are -- Bush (+23), Carson (+4), Huckabee (+11), Romney (+23), Rubio (+7), and Walker (+10). Bush and Romney have the most positive support, but the others also have a chance -- if for no reason other than there's not a lot of negative feelings about them in the party.

Hillary Clinton is still by far the candidate viewed most positively by Democrats, with a rating of +74. Other Democrats with a positive rating are Biden (+2) and Warren (+3). Several Democrats (including Sanders who is actually an Independent) have negative ratings -- Cuomo (-2), O'Malley (-10), Sanders (-4), and Webb (-8). This makes it very clear who the Democrats most want to see run for their nomination. It's Clinton by a lot.

The survey also asked respondents of both parties whether it was more important for a candidate to have a real chance of winning, or whether it was more important for the candidate to agree with their own views. The results are shown in the charts below -- and those who want candidates to share their views on policies are the large majority in both parties.

These numbers are from a new CBS News Poll that was done between January 9th and 12th of a random nationwide sample of 1,000 adults. The margin of error for both parties is about 6 points.



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