I have heard a lot of people say (especially those on the left that want Warren to break her word and run) that Hillary was the prohibitive favorite in 2008, just like she is now -- and she lost. They are trying to convince themselves that another Democrat could overtake Clinton and win the nomination.
But there is a problem with that analysis -- it is just not true. At this point in the 2008 election, all three of the leading Democrats had very close net favorability ratings -- 54 for Edwards, 55 for Obama, and 58 for Clinton. Those numbers simply don't show a huge preference among Democrats for Clinton. Instead, it shows a competitive primary -- and that's just what happened.
Things are shaping up differently for the 2016 primary season. Clinton has a significant lead in the net favorability ratings this time -- Clinton 66, Biden 47, and Warren 37. That means Clinton has a 19 point edge over Biden and a 29 point edge over Warren. Clinton was not the prohibitive favorite in 2008, but she is right now -- and I doubt that will change.
These charts were made from a recent Gallup Poll -- done between March 2nd and 4th of a random national sample of 649 Democrats, with a 5 point margin of error.
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