Thursday, April 23, 2015

The Latest National Presidential Nomination Survey



This is the latest national poll on the presidential campaign. It is the YouGov Poll done between April 18th and 20th of a random national sample of 1,000 adults, with a margin of error of 4.1 points. I found it interesting because it not only shows who the members of each party prefer to be their nominee, but also who the general public would prefer to be the nominee of each party.

The interesting thing is that the general public is not that different from the voters in the two parties. The public has no real preference among Republicans (although Bush led with 12%), and neither do the Republicans at this point (with no candidate getting more than 15%).

It's different on the Democratic side. Both the public and the Democrats have a clear favorite, and it's no surprise -- Hillary Clinton. About 35% of the public pick Clinton (23 points more than Biden, who finished second). Among Democrats, Clinton gets a clear majority of 65%.

The two charts below don't mean anything. I just found them amusing. It shows the preference among the candidates that members of the opposing party would choose. One thing is clear though -- Republicans don't want Democrats to nominate Hillary Clinton.



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