Are Republicans Losing Some Of Their Conservative Base?

 This chart was made from Gallup Polls done between 2001 and 2015 -- and shows the percentage of Republicans who identify as both Economic & Social Conservatives, and as Economic & Social Moderates/Liberals. The latest Gallup Poll was done between May 6th and 10th of a random national sample of 1,024 adults, with a margin of error of 4 points.

Note that before the Great Recession the percentage of conservatives was in the low to mid-40's, while the percentage of moderates/liberals was in the mid-20's. There was a radical change after the election of President Obama -- with the conservatives rising to 57% and the moderates/liberals dropping to 13%. That trend now seems to be reversing since 2012, and currently it stands at 42% conservative and 24% moderate/liberal (with the remainder being conservative economically and moderate/liberal socially, or vice versa). The biggest change has been since 2014 (the year the GOP won control of both houses of Congress).

What has happened? Is the congressional GOP's march to the ultra-right and complete inability to compromise or govern scaring off some of their own conservative base? Are even some Republicans starting to realize the utter failure of the right on both economic and social issues?

While this is interesting, don't expect it to make much difference in the short-term. The Republican Party is still controlled by the teabaggers and evangelicals, and that is why their candidates still pander to both those groups -- and why they will probably nominate an extremist as their presidential candidate in 2016.

But the future could hold something different. The percentage of conservatives is lowest among young Republicans, and rises steadily with age. Who knows? This could foretell the Republican Party someday returning to the moderate views they once had.