Supreme Court Should Protect Obamacare Subsidies

When our lawmakers wrote the bill that instituted Obamacare (the Affordable Heath Care Act), they put a provision in it to make sure that it was understood that those people going through a state health care exchange qualified for a federal government subsidy to help them purchase insurance. But they evidently didn't make it clear enough that people using either a state exchange or the federal exchange qualified for those subsidies.

The right-wing, which has been searching for a way to destroy Obamacare for several years now, has jumped on this rather poorly written provision of the law -- and they filed suit to keep those using the federal exchange from getting a subsidy. That case is now pending before the U.S. Supreme Court, and if that court decides in favor of the right-wingers who brought the case, up to 8 million people would lose their subsidy (and no longer be able to afford health care insurance).

A new poll has been done, the Washington Post / ABC News Poll, to find out what the public thinks the Supreme Court should do. That survey was done between May 28th and 31st of a random national sample of 1,001 adults, and has a margin of error of 3.5 points. And the public spoke up clearly in defense of the Obamacare subsidies.

The public wants those subsidies to remain intact. This includes 55% of all adults, 65% of Democrats, 57% of Independents, 58% of those living in a state that has a state exchange, and 53% of those living in a state without an exchange. The only group with a majority saying the subsidies should be stopped is Republicans (and 34% of them want the subsidies protected).

Republican officials are beginning to realize they may have shot themselves in the foot on this issue. They could be entering the next election cycle being responsible for something the public is against (the removal of subsidies, which could virtually kill Obamacare), and with 8 million angry voters having lost their health insurance (and looking for someone to blame).

The Supreme Court decision is expected sometime this month, and most pundits believe there is a 50-50 chance they will stop the federal subsidies. The congressional Republicans have been searching for a way out of this mess they created for themselves (with their rabid opposition to Obamacare), but right now, it looks like they are not going to be able to agree on a solution. They are too afraid of looking like they support Obamacare (which could hurt them in next year's primary).

It looks like the states will have to find their own solution -- and fortunately a simple one is available. They could follow the example of Pennsylvania and Delaware. Those two states are creating their own exchange -- sort of. It is a state exchange in name only, since their citizens will continue to use the federal website to buy insurance -- but it would be sufficient to allow their citizens to keep getting the federal subsidy to help them purchase insurance.

Will all the non-exchange states follow this example if the Court rules against the subsidies? I don't know. Some very red states, like Texas, could refuse to take action. It will be interesting to see what the court decides this month, and what Republicans do about that decision (if it kills subsidies). They have definitely put themselves between a rock and a hard place on this issue.