Saturday, July 18, 2015

Yet Another National Poll Has Trump Leading GOP Field



The presidential polls seem to be coming fast and furious this week. This one is the latest Fox News Poll. It was done between July 13th and 15th of a random national sample of 1,019 registered voters. The margin of error for both Republicans and Democrats is 5 points.

As other recent polls have shown, Donald Trump looks to be leading the GOP field for the Republican presidential nomination with 18%. He seems to have been more effective in tapping into the xenophobic anger of the Republican base. Only two candidates are within the margin of error to Trump -- Walker who is 3 points behind him, and Bush who is four points behind him. No other candidate got more than 8% (10 points behind Trump).

Fox's results for Democrats is also similar to other recent polls. It shows Hillary Clinton with 59% -- giving her a 40 point lead over Bernie Sanders (who finished second with 19%).

This survey also gave a demographic breakdown of candidate's support, and I show that for the three leading candidates in each party below. Trump's support among Republicans is pretty broad-based. He holds a significant lead in seven of the 10 demographic groups listed -- and is in a virtual tie in the other three groups. I may have to start considering him a serious contender among the Republicans.

For the Democrats, Clinton holds a big lead in all demographic groups. Sanders gets his biggest support among liberals, those under 45, those with a college degree, whites, and men. He gets at least 25% in all those groups.



1 comment:

  1. What's most interesting there is that Trump does so well among Republicans who make less than the median income. I still don't understand those at the bottom who idolize those at the top -- especially those at the top who were born there! Have you seen what BooMan has to say, The Trump Phenomenon is No Joke? Apparently, Huffington Post has decided only to cover Trump's campaign in the entertainment section. BooMan thinks this is a mistake. I still don't take Trump seriously, but I'm starting to wonder. Ronald Reagan was a joke until he wasn't. (Admittedly: he wasn't as much of a joke; but then, the times weren't as much of a joke.)

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