Sunday, November 01, 2015

Biden's Decision To Stay Out Favors Clinton Over Sanders


These charts reflect the newest YouGov Poll (done between October 23rd and 27th of a random sample of 2,000 adults, with a 3 point margin of error).There were 654 Democrats in the sample, but no margin of error was given for demographic samples.

Shortly after the Democratic debate in October, Joe Biden announced that he would not enter the presidential race. Most who follow politics (including me) thought that decision would help the candidacy of Hillary Clinton -- and this poll verifies that is probably true.

The chart above compares the support for Democratic candidates before and after Biden's announcement. It shows that Biden's announcement boosted Clinton from 48% to 61% (about 13 points). Sanders also got a boost, but it was smaller -- only 6 points (from 23% to 29%). This increased Clinton's lead over Sanders from 25 points to about 32 points.

I think Clinton would have gotten the nomination even with Biden in the race -- but his staying out will allow her to get a majority of delegates a little earlier in the primary process.

The chart below shows a demographic breakdown of Democratic support for both Clinton and Sanders. Note that Clinton holds majority support in every group but one -- those under 30 years-old, and she holds a 6 point lead in that group.


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