Wednesday, November 25, 2015

Iowa GOP Race For President Is Still Very Volatile

The Quinnipiac University Poll has done a new survey of Iowa Republicans on their presidential preference. They surveyed 600 Iowa Republicans between November 16th and 22nd, and the poll has a margin of error of 4 points.

The poll shows that Ted Cruz has surpassed Ben Carson in Iowa by 5 points. Cruz is second only to Donald Trump by 2 points -- but with the poll margin of error being 4 points, the best we can say are that Trump and Cruz are virtually tied. Rubio finished in fourth with 13%, and all of the ten other candidates finished with 5% or less.

What can we glean from this poll? First, that Iowa is still very volatile. I don't think I've seen two Iowa polls in a row with the same results. Second, this seems to be boiling down to a four-man race (Trump, Cruz, Carson, and Rubio). Third, unless something changes, no GOP candidate is going to emerge from the Iowa caucuses as the clear leader.

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