Would Bernie Have Won If All States Had Open Primaries ?

Bernie Sanders has now admitted that the Democratic presidential nominating process is not rigged. But he still thinks it was unfair. He's not talking about super delegates anymore, since the only way he can possibly win now is to convince a few hundred super delegates to switch their support from Hillary Clinton to him.

He does, however, think the closed primaries have worked against him, and his supporters are all over social media claiming he would have won if all states had open primaries (which would allow Independents and Republicans to vote in the Democratic primary).

Is that true? Would Bernie have won if all states had an open primary? Nate Silver and Harry Enten of fivethirtyeight.com don't think so. Their data shows that it would have made very little difference in the overall delegate count. The first chart below shows the current vote totals and delegate counts -- and the second chart shows what they project the vote count and delegate totals would have been if all state had an open primary. (Caricature of Sanders is by DonkeyHotey.)

Democratic votes and delegates based on actual results

					POPULAR VOTE (THOUSANDS)		PLEDGED DELEGATES
STATE	CAUCUS	CLOSED	WINNER		CLINTON	SANDERS	CLINTON	SANDERS
Iowa	✓		Clinton	+0	85	85	23	21
N.H.			Sanders	+22	95	152	9	15
Nevada	✓	✓	Clinton	+5	44	40	20	15
South Carolina			Clinton	+47	272	96	39	14
Alabama			Clinton	+59	309	76	44	9
Am. Samoa	✓		Clinton	+43	<1 td="">	<1 td="">	4	2
Arkansas			Clinton	+36	146	66	22	10
Georgia			Clinton	+43	546	216	73	29
Massachusetts			Clinton	+1	607	590	46	45
Oklahoma			Sanders	+10	139	174	17	21
Tennessee			Clinton	+34	246	121	44	23
Texas			Clinton	+32	936	477	147	75
Vermont			Sanders	+72	18	116	0	16
Virginia			Clinton	+29	505	276	62	33
Colorado	✓	✓	Sanders	+19	50	73	25	41
Minnesota	✓		Sanders	+23	78	126	31	46
Louisiana		✓	Clinton	+48	222	72	37	14
Nebraska	✓	✓	Sanders	+14	14	19	10	15
Kansas	✓	✓	Sanders	+35	13	26	10	23
Maine	✓	✓	Sanders	+29	16	30	8	17
Michigan			Sanders	+1	582	599	63	67
Mississippi			Clinton	+66	187	38	31	5
N. Marianas	✓	✓	Clinton	+20	<1 td="">	<1 td="">	4	2
Florida		✓	Clinton	+31	1,101	569	141	73
Illinois			Clinton	+2	1,040	999	79	77
Missouri			Clinton	+0	312	311	36	35
North Carolina			Clinton	+14	623	467	60	47
Ohio			Clinton	+13	697	535	81	62
Dems abroad			Sanders	+38	11	24	4	9
Arizona		✓	Clinton	+15	262	193	42	33
Utah	✓		Sanders	+59	15	60	6	27
Idaho	✓		Sanders	+57	5	19	5	18
Hawaii	✓		Sanders	+40	10	24	8	17
Washington	✓		Sanders	+46	62	167	27	74
Alaska	✓	✓	Sanders	+59	2	8	3	13
Wisconsin			Sanders	+14	434	570	38	48
Wyoming	✓	✓	Sanders	+11	3	4	7	7
New York		✓	Clinton	+16	1,134	820	139	108
Pennsylvania		✓	Clinton	+12	922	722	106	83
Rhode Island			Sanders	+12	53	67	11	13
Connecticut		✓	Clinton	+5	170	152	28	27
Delaware		✓	Clinton	+21	56	37	12	9
Maryland		✓	Clinton	+29	573	310	61	34
Indiana			Sanders	+5	303	335	39	44
Guam	✓	✓	Clinton	+19	1	1	4	3
West Virginia			Sanders	+16	86	123	11	18
Kentucky		✓	Clinton	+0	213	211	28	27
Oregon		✓	Sanders	+13	264	347	26	35
Total			Clinton	+12	13,463	10,544	1,771	1,499

The model considers each 2016 contest and controls for (i) the black and Hispanic share of the Democratic vote in that state in the 2008 general election, (ii) whether that primary or caucus is “open” to independent voters unaffiliated with a political party, and (iii) the margin in national primary polls at the time the contest is held.

But what would happen if every state held a primary that was open to independent voters? Independent voters, after all, have been among Sanders’s strongest groups, and Sanders supporters have consistently cited closed contests as evidence the game is rigged. We can rerun the same regression as above but estimate what would happen if all the primaries are open to unaffiliated voters.

Projected results if every state had held an open primary

			POPULAR VOTE (THOUSANDS)		PLEDGED DELEGATES
STATE	WINNER		CLINTON	SANDERS	CLINTON	SANDERS
Iowa	Clinton	+24	301	182	27	17
Nevada	Clinton	+18	188	130	21	14
Am. Samoa	Clinton	+60	4	1	5	1
Colorado	Sanders	+6	331	373	31	35
Minnesota	Clinton	+1	402	394	39	38
Louisiana	Clinton	+39	240	100	36	15
Nebraska	Sanders	+5	79	88	12	13
Kansas	Sanders	+23	90	144	13	20
Maine	Sanders	+16	91	127	10	15
N. Marianas	Clinton	+30	3	2	4	2
Florida	Clinton	+20	1,159	760	129	85
Arizona	Clinton	+4	267	248	39	36
Utah	Sanders	+39	52	120	10	23
Idaho	Sanders	+37	33	72	7	16
Hawaii	Sanders	+17	63	88	10	15
Washington	Clinton	+6	471	418	53	48
Alaska	Sanders	+50	16	48	4	12
Wyoming	Clinton	+2	19	19	7	7
New York	Clinton	+4	1,146	1,049	129	118
Pennsylvania	Clinton	+0	915	907	95	94
Connecticut	Sanders	+6	176	200	26	29
Delaware	Clinton	+9	58	49	11	10
Maryland	Clinton	+18	581	399	56	39
Guam	Clinton	+31	11	6	5	2
Kentucky	Sanders	+10	205	256	24	31
Oregon	Sanders	+25	251	418	23	38
Current open primary states	Clinton	+12	8,146	6,429	956	715
Total	Clinton	+8	15,298	13,024	1,782	1,488