The charts above are from the Washington Post / Schar School Poll -- done between November 27th and 30th of a random sample of 739 likely Alabama voters, with a 4.5 point margin of error.
The poll has Democrat Doug Jones with a slim 3 point lead over Republican Roy Moore. But with a 4.5 point margin of error, the poll has either candidate with a good chance of winning. I wish I could believe Jones has a good chance of beating Moore, but I don't.
I think there is something that makes the Alabama polls next to worthless. I believe there is a statistically significant portion of voters that are embarrassed to tell pollsters that they'll vote for Moore (the accused pedophile), but they will vote for him when they get alone in the voting booth. If that is true, and I think it is, then Moore will win by at least 5 points (and probably more).
I really hope I'm wrong.
No comments:
Post a Comment
ANONYMOUS COMMENTS WILL NOT BE PUBLISHED. And neither will racist,homophobic, or misogynistic comments. I do not mind if you disagree, but make your case in a decent manner.