Saturday, January 06, 2018

Unemployment Rate Is At 4.1% For Third Month In A Row



The Labor Department has released it's unemployment statistics for December. It shows that a rather disappointing 148,000 jobs were created. That was enough to fully compensate for the rise in the civilian work force of 64,000. But it was barely enough to keep the unemployment rate at 4.1% for the third month in a row. The economy is struggling to get below that number.

Trump and congressional Republicans are telling us that their new tax plan will create a massive number of new jobs. I doubt that. Demand must be created before huge numbers of new jobs can be created (because companies won't create jobs they don't need just because they got a large tax cut). And most of the tax cuts went to the rich, who already have enough money to buy whatever they want. The middle class only got a small cut, which is unlikely to boost demand. But we'll see in the coming months who is right.

Here are the relevant statistics for December:

SIZE OF CIVILIAN WORK FORCE:

160,597,000

OFFICIAL NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED WORKERS:

6,576,000

OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE:

4.1%

DEMOGRAPHIC LOOK AT OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES:

Adult men...............3.8%
Adult women...............3.7%
Teens (16-19)...............13.6%
White...............3.7%
Black...............6.8%
Hispanic...............4.9%
Asian...............2.5%
Less than HS diploma...............6.3%
HS graduate...............4.2%
Some college...............3.6%
Bachelor's deg. or more...............2.1%

NUMBER OF "MARGINALLY-ATTACHED" UNEMPLOYED (no longer included in official count):

1,623,000

MORE REALISTIC NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED:

8,199,000

MORE REALISTIC UNEMPLOYMENT RATE:

5.11%

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