Near-Record Number Of Congressional Retirements This Year

(Cartoon image is by Jimmy Margulies at jimmymargulies.com.)

Political Pundits are predicting a "blue wave" in this year's congressional elections -- a wave that could flip one or both houses of Congress. The primary reason for that is the low job approval for Trump and the GOP-dominated Congress. But there is another factor that will help -- the near-record number of congressional retirements (most of them Republicans).

The following is part of an article on this from the Pew Research Center:

More members of the U.S. House of Representatives are choosing not to seek re-election to that body than at any time in the past quarter-century – including a record number of Republicans, according to an analysis by Pew Research Center. Those counts could rise further, since the filing deadlines in most states haven’t yet passed.

As of Feb. 28, 52 representatives (36 Republicans and 16 Democrats) have announced that they’re not running for new terms, according to our count. In addition, one Democrat (John Conyers of Michigan) resigned late last year, and his seat won’t be filled until Election Day in November – making a total of 53 voluntary departures, or 12% of the House’s full voting membership.

That’s the most since 1992, when 65 representatives (41 Democrats and 24 Republicans) chose not to pursue re-election; 51 retired outright, while 14 decided to run for some other office. Based on our analysis and a tally going back to 1930 compiled by Vital Statistics on Congress, 1992 is the record year for voluntary House departures.

The 36 Republicans who are leaving the House by choice after this year are the most for the GOP since 1930, according to our analysis and the Vital Statistics data. (This year’s tally doesn’t include three currently vacant seats that had been held by Republicans who have resigned, since those seats will be filled by special elections before November and the winners presumably will seek full terms as incumbents.) . . .

The spate of House members opting not to run for re-election this year has prompted much commentary speculating on what it might or might not mean for Democrats’ hopes of regaining control of the chamber. But large numbers of retirements don’t necessarily portend big changes in the House’s partisan makeup, based on a review of election results since 1992.

Over that timespan, there have been three elections that saw enough seats switch parties to shift control of the House. In 1994, a net 52 House seats swung from Democratic to Republican as the GOP took control for the first time in more than four decades. Democrats regained control in 2006, when they picked up 30 Republican seats, only to lose it again in 2010 when a net 63 seats turned from blue to red.

None of those elections were marked by particularly large numbers of voluntary departures. In 1994, 48 representatives retired or ran for another office – not many more than the 1992-2018 average of 41. Only 30 representatives passed on re-election bids in 2006 (less than 7% of the House), and 38 did so in 2010. On the other hand, while 1992 remains the record year for voluntary departures, the GOP gained just a net 10 seats from Democrats in that year’s elections.

And picking off seats opened up by retirements, resignations or seeking other offices has not been a major factor behind the most recent shifts in House control. In 2010, only 13 of the 66 Democratic seats that flipped to the GOP were open; just seven of the 30 Republican seats that Democrats captured in 2006 to retake the House were open. In 1994, Republicans won 21 open Democratic seats, but it was the 35 Democratic incumbents they beat that gave them the majority.