Larry Sabato (from the University of Virginia Center for Politics) has moved another 17 congressional seats toward Democrats (see chart above). Eight seats have been moved from leans Republican to toss-up. Three seats have been moved fro likely Republican to leans Republican. Five seats have been moved from safe Republican to likely Republican. And one seat has been moved from likely Democrat to safe Democrat.
One of those seats is in my own district -- House District 31, which is currently held by Republican John Carter. This had been considered a safe seat for Republicans. But the Democrats nominated a great candidate, and she is moving the district toward Democrats. The seat is still considered likely Republican, but the Democrat (Mary "MJ" Hegar) has raised over a million dollars in campaign funds, and is ready to fight for the seat.
District 31 is composed of two Texas counties -- Williamson and Bell Counties. Williamson has slightly more Republicans than Democrats, but Bell (the home of the Army's Fort Hood) is solidly red. Hegar is a veteran Army helicopter pilot, who served two tours in Afghanistan -- getting a Purple Heart and the Distinguished Flying Croos with Valor. If she can peel off a substantial portion of the Fort Hood votes, she could win this race. I'm starting to get excited.
Below are the seats rated by Sabato as possibly being in play now. He shows the Democrats with two open seats that are listed as toss-ups. But the Republicans have 33 seats they currently hold that are now listed as toss-ups. For the first time this election season, Sabato is now predicting the Democrats will flip the House of Representatives.
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