Wednesday, August 29, 2018

Another Poll Shows Senate Race In Texas Is Very Close




These charts are from the latest Emerson College Poll -- done between August 22nd and 25th of 550 registered voters in Texas, and has a margin of error of 4.4 points.

It just verifies what at least four other polls have shown -- that the senate race in Texas (between Democrat Beto O'Rourke and Republican incumbent Ted Cruz) is very close. For the first time in quite a while, the Democrats actually have a chance to win in a statewide election.

How is this happening? It's a combination of Democrats having a very good candidate (who's running as a real Democrat instead of a Republican-lite candidate), and Cruz not being very well-liked (by his Senate colleagues or a lot of Texans).

By virtue of being the incumbent and wearing the Republican label, Cruz would still have to be the slight favorite. But this seat was not even supposed to be close. Now it looks like Cruz is going to need that GOP label, and even that might not be enough to save him.

Lest you think this is some kind of left-wing poll, note the chart below. The governor's race looks to be a runaway for the Republican Party. Texas is still a very red state (although demographic shifts are slowly changing that), but it is a red state that just might send a Democrat to the U.S. Senate.


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