The chart above shows the results of a new Public Opinion Strategies Poll -- done between August 29th and September 2nd of a national sample of 800 registered voters, with a 3.5 point margin of error. The poll was commissioned by the Republican National Committee.
The poll is worrying to Republican leaders, because they think it could suppress their voter turnout. While every poll is predicting a very good chance of Democrats taking control of the House of Representatives (and most political pundits agreeing with that), the Republicans need their voters to turn out in large numbers -- if not to win, to at least mitigate the predicted damage to their party in the upcoming election.
But Trump has told his base that there is no "Blue Wave'. He says there will be a "Red Wave" instead, and Republicans will do very well in the 2018 elections. And, to the horror of GOP leaders, it looks like many Republicans believe him.
The GOP poll shows that 50% of all Republican voters think they will retain control of the House, while an equal 50% think the Democrats will win control. But among voters who strongly approve of Trump, only 37% think the Democrats will win control while 57% think Republicans will retain control -- a gap of 20 points.
Will Trump's strongest supporters show up at the polls -- with him not on the ballot and being convinced the GOP has it in the bag? Republican leaders are afraid too many will stay at home.
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