Republicans Are Losing Women And Educated Voters

These charts (from mehlmancastagnetti.com) show a very disturbing trend for the Republican Party. They are losing both women and educated voters -- and the trend is growing. There is currently a 25 point gap for women preferring the Democratic Party, and a 22 point gap among college-educated voters. Add to that the already significant gap Republicans had with young and minority voters, and 2018 looks very good for Democrats.

The Republicans seem to be counting on white uneducated men to carry them to victory. But even if they carry a majority of that group, it is unlikely that majority will be big enough to offset their deficit among women, minorities, educated, and young voters.

That means it is very likely that the House of Representatives will flip to Democratic Party control, and there is a chance the Senate could also flip. It's a tougher road for Democrats in the Senate because of the map, which in 2018 has 25 Democratic seats up for election and only 8 seats.

If the Senate doesn't flip in 2018, there is a much better chance that it will flip in 2020 --when only 12 Democratic seats are up for election compared to 22 Republican seats. (see charts below)

I haven't given up on flipping the Senate in 2018, but if that doesn't happen, then 2020 provides a great opportunity for Democrats -- especially since the GOP will still be the party of Trump.